Guosheng: Low-orbit constellation competition and space computing power revolution ignite a new cycle of demand for space photovoltaics.

Guosheng released a research report stating that the rapid increase in the number of satellites has elevated high-reliability, high-specific-power space photovoltaic systems from supporting components to "strategic infrastructure," leading to exponential growth in demand. Perovskite is viewed as the ultimate solution for the next generation of space photovoltaics. With the dual drivers of the global space energy demand outbreak and the acceleration of the China-US supply chain restructuring, Chinese photovoltaic companies with aerospace certification qualifications, technical endorsement, and scale delivery capabilities are transitioning from "ground support" to "space-based core," with space photovoltaic demand potentially becoming the next growth opportunity. Guosheng's key points are as follows: Explosive satellite deployment and space AI computing planning are driving the surge in demand for space photovoltaics. Against the backdrop of the critical phase of global low-orbit satellite deployment entering the "resource allocation" stage, China and the US are engaged in intense competition over orbits and frequencies. According to the rules of "first declaration to ITU, with a deadline for deployment," China submitted an application for 203,000 satellites to the International Telecommunication Union by the end of December 2025, with a total declaration of 254,000 satellites. While the US has only declared about 70,000 to 80,000 satellites, it has already launched over 10,000 satellites with the SpaceX Starlink program, occupying a significant amount of low-orbit space and frequencies. The global space race is accelerating. The explosive growth of AI computing power has led to a new paradigm of "space-based data centers." Ground data centers are limited by energy consumption and heat dissipation constraints, while in space, 24-hour sunlight is available, and nearly zero-cost heat dissipation can be achieved using the deep-cold background of the universe. Musk has proposed deploying a 100-500GW-level space-based AI computing network, while China plans to build GW-level dawn-dusk orbit computing clusters by 2035. The rapid increase in the number of satellites has elevated high-reliability, high-specific-power space photovoltaic systems from supporting components to "strategic infrastructure," leading to exponential demand growth. Accelerated iteration of technological pathways, P-type HJT and perovskite stack open up new cost reduction and performance spaces. Although mainstream gallium arsenide triple-junction cells have a conversion efficiency of about 30% and decades of mature applications with excellent radiation resistance, their costs range from $70/W to over $170/W and rely on scarce germanium substrates and MOCVD epitaxial processes, making it difficult to support cost-effective constellation models of millions of satellites. Against this backdrop, two new pathways are rapidly emerging: P-type HJT cells leverage the weaker electron capture capability in P-type silicon, resulting in minimal impact on minority carrier lifetime. Their low-temperature process supports thin-film preparation and benefits from a mature industrial chain on the ground, resulting in lower costs. The other pathway is crystalline silicon/perovskite stack cells, with a laboratory efficiency of around 35% and specific power of 23-83W/g, far exceeding gallium arsenide at 3W/g; perovskite's stability shortcoming in vacuum, anoxic, and moisture-free space environments is naturally mitigated, and its high defect tolerance and radiation resistance outperform traditional materials, making it the next-generation ultimate solution for space photovoltaics. Mismatched global manufacturing patterns offer historic opportunities for Chinese equipment and cell manufacturers to go global. Musk has proposed plans for SpaceX and Tesla to build a total of 200GW photovoltaic capacity in the US over the next three years (100GW each), primarily for ground data centers and space AI satellite power supply, leading to an explosive demand for photovoltaic cell equipment. The US lacks HJT and perovskite integrated equipment capabilities domestically, while Chinese companies have achieved global leadership in this field and are poised to benefit. With the dual drivers of the global space energy demand outbreak and the accelerated restructuring of the China-US supply chain, Chinese photovoltaic companies with aerospace certification qualifications, technical endorsement, and scale delivery capabilities are transitioning from "ground support" to "space-based core," with space photovoltaic demand potentially becoming the next growth opportunity. Investment recommendations include photovoltaic equipment suppliers such as Suzhou Maxwell Technologies, and potential players like LAPLACE Renewable Energy Technology, LINTON, Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation, Wuxi Autowell Technology Co., Ltd., Qingdao Gaoce Technology, Wuhan DR Laser Technology Corp., Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical, and photovoltaic material suppliers including Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology, Risen Energy, Ming Yang Smart Energy, Shanghai Geoharbour Construction Group Co., Ltd., Xiamen Changelight, Trina Solar Co., Ltd., and Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems. Risk factors include slower-than-expected progress in space photovoltaic technology development, overall slow progress in commercial aerospace technology, lower-than-expected orders for space photovoltaics, and increased competition in the space photovoltaic market.