Brokerage Morning Meeting Highlights | Emphasize winning rate, focus on high-quality and low-level directions.
At today's morning meeting of securities firms, Huatai Securities believes in paying attention to the winning rate, focusing on the direction of outstanding performance and low positions; CITIC Securities believes in moving from virtual to real, emphasizing the diffusion of clues indicating price increases; and Oriental Fortune Securities believes that the spring market is not yet complete and small adjustments and switches in structure need to occur.
Last Friday, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4117.95 points (-0.96%), the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14205.89 points (-0.66%), and the ChiNext Index bucked the trend with a 1.27% increase. The total turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was approximately 2.84 trillion yuan, a decrease of nearly 400 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Leading sectors in terms of gains included CPO (co-packaged optics), agriculture (seed industry, soybeans), communication equipment, and Spring Festival-related consumer goods such as films and liquor. Stocks related to optical modules, such as Yangtze Optical Fibre And Cable Joint Stock, Hengtong Optic-Electric, Suzhou TFC Optical Communication, and Shenzhen JPT Opto-Electronics, all hit the limit-up. On the other hand, the non-ferrous metals sector experienced a collective downturn, with precious metals leading the decline. Stocks such as Beijing Xiaocheng Technology Stock, Hunan Silver, and Baiyin Nonferrous Group all hit the limit down. The sector as a whole fell by nearly 8%, primarily due to a significant correction in international gold and silver prices and profit-taking from previous gains.
At the stockbroker's morning meeting today, Huatai emphasized focusing on winning percentage and paying attention to high-quality and low position opportunities; CITIC Securities highlighted moving from the virtual to the real, focusing on the diffusion of upward price clues; East Money Information Securities believes that the spring market rally is not over yet, and adjustments and transitions in small structures are needed.
Huatai: Focus on winning percentage, pay attention to high-quality and low position opportunities
Last week, the A-share market fluctuated at high levels, and the market value was dominant. Looking ahead, there are many factors restricting the rise in risk appetite before the festival: externally, with the possibility of Kevin Warsh becoming the Federal Reserve Chairman, given his previous reputation as an inflation hawk, the US dollar and US bond yields are rising, putting pressure on risk assets; internally, as the market spreads to undervalued sectors like liquor, the difficulty of capturing excess returns increases due to faster rotations and the rise in the willingness of funds to take profits under technical adjustment pressure and the long holiday effect. However, the core drivers of this spring market rally have not fundamentally changed. The probability of winning has improved from post-Spring Festival to pre-Two Sessions, providing a new window for market adjustment or layout. In terms of allocation, placing emphasis on winning percentage and recommending focusing on high-quality and low position opportunities such as power equipment, storage and semiconductor equipment, chemicals, engineering machinery, agriculture, and beauty care. Low positions in the consumption and traveling chain benefiting from the long holiday can be considered.
CITIC SEC: Moving from the virtual to the real, focusing on the diffusion of upward price clues
The nomination of Warsh as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve represents the policy willingness of "US version of moving from the virtual to the real", whether the ideology can be implemented successfully or not will have a huge impact on the global style of risk assets. From the perspective of A-shares, from resource heat to cycle heat, the comprehensive interpretation of the upward price clues is likely to run through the first quarter. The common foundation of the cyclical sector is a large space for profit margin restoration, behind which is China's policy transition from expanding scale to gradually improving quality and efficiency. The bottom-line thinking of configuration should still revolve around the reassessment of industry pricing power in the global market, with bottom positions in chemicals, non-ferrous metals, power equipment, and new energy still valid, but caution should be maintained for the precious metals sector where speculative attributes are becoming more obvious. The recovery of the consumer and real estate chains should occur in the spring, which is not contradictory to manufacturing and technology.
East Money Information Securities: The spring market rally is not over yet; small structures need to adjust and transition
We were the first to suggest the opportunity of the price hike chain in December, but the transition has been needed to occur in small structures: the non-ferrous sector has shown strength from December, accumulating significant paper profits, but short-term fluctuations in futures prices continue, and the nomination of the Federal Reserve Chairman is also marginal influencing medium-term weak dollar expectations.
In the medium term, the overall loose liquidity environment at home and abroad, the relatively tight supply and demand for some cyclical products, and the synchronous expansion of fiscal policies in China, the US, and Europe remain unchanged. However, from the historical stock price performance, if the prices of cyclical products fluctuate at high levels, the overall cyclical style is difficult to significantly outperform, and signals of a price breakthrough need to be awaited. Compared to assets with high volatility and high valuations, recent structural adjustments can be focused on sectors that have not yet fully realized gains since the beginning of this spring rally, such as electronics (components/semiconductors), communications, and non-banking financials.
Key industry focus: electronics (storage/semiconductors, etc.), insurance, media, machinery, communications, chemicals, etc. Key theme focus: Siasun Robot&Automation, autonomous driving, AI applications.
This article is reprinted from "Cai Lianshe". GMTEight editor: Liu Jiayin.
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