From the sharp decline in the entrance to the "doji star", is the reversal of the low-stage consolidation of INNOGEN-B (02591) imminent?

In the hot Hong Kong IPO market in the year 2025, many "star IPO targets" emerged, and among the many "stars", INNOGEN-B (02591) still managed to stand out with the status of "Hong Kongs first stock under mechanism B". It is understood that under the new rules of "mechanism B" which lock in 10%-60% proportion in advance and have no callback, the rules of the game between institutions and retail investors have been directly rewritten, and the eco-system of Hong Kong IPOs has been reshaped. As the first stock to be issued under the new rules, ENNOGEN-B saw a surge of over 270% in the grey market, with a market value exceeding 32.4 billion Hong Kong dollars. As a result, it quickly became a component stock of the Hang Seng Composite Index, being included in the list of Hong Kong Stock Connect on December 8th last year. However, since being included in the Stock Connect, ENNOGEN-B's stock has seen successive daily drops of over 14%, a cumulative drop of nearly 30% within seven days of inclusion, and a pattern of "guiding the immortals", perhaps indicating that the performance of this "first stock under mechanism B" is not as simple as it may seem. For a company to choose mechanism B, lower the public offering to the lower limit of 10% and create an extremely reduced circulation market, the main control of funds was conducted by ENNOGEN-B stock. The company climbed to a medium-large market value standard during the quarterly review of the Stock Connect in the Q3 quarter and eventually gained entry into the Stock Connect. Looking at the market, from the first day of listing last year until October 27th, ENNOGEN-B's BOLL line had opened downward and showed a clear narrowing trend earlier, guiding the stock to continue to fall. During this period, the company's stock price essentially fluctuated mechanically along the middle and lower rails of the BOLL line, with an overall trend of non-trading volume selling. During this prolonged period of more than two months of continuous low-priced trading, ENNOGEN-B had only six trading days with daily trading volumes exceeding one million shares, indicating a very slow market trading situation, also indicating the stabilizing effect of mechanism B on the company's stock price. In the period of continued decline in ENNOGEN-B's stock price, there was an interval of accelerated narrowing of the BOLL line, between November 3rd and November 21st last year. During this interval, the fluctuation of the company's stock price appeared to be significantly reduced, usually signaling a turnaround or the prospect of one. On November 24th, ENNOGEN-B pulled out a rare large positive line, with a significant rise of over 30% on that day, and continued with a "five consecutive positive" trend. Even on the day of the sharp rise on November 24th, the trading volume of ENNOGEN-B stock was only 1.1575 million shares. This trend continued with low trading volumes even during the "five consecutive positive" period when the daily trading volume was less than 500,000 shares, showing a clear feature of rise without volume. This indicated that the main fund holders of ENNOGEN-B stock had a high degree of control, consistent with the performance under "mechanism B". Subsequently, in two correction phases on December 1st, 2nd, 8th, and 9th, ENNOGEN-B did not see any significant increase in trading volume, indicating that the main funds did not have a selling intention. It was only on December 10th when ENNOGEN-B pulled out another large positive line, rising nearly 20%, that the trading volume increased to 19.15%. However, the sharp rise did not attract the attention of the off-market holders on the following day, as the trading volume of ENNOGEN-B fell again, indicating a serious lack of attention from off-market holders and a weak market acceptance, leading to a situation of fluctuating stock prices and rare trading volumes. Notably, this was the situation after December 8th, when ENNOGEN-B was included in the Stock Connect. In reality, the surge in volumes of ENNOGEN-B after joining the Stock Connect did not trigger large-scale buying by the capital through the Stock Connect. Looking at the changes in the holdings of capital through the Stock Connect, only a few capital through the Stock Connect entered over the 5 trading days after ENNOGEN-B joined. By December 16th, the company's holdings through the Stock Connect were at 0.51%. However, as the company's stock price continued to drop, the capital through the Stock Connect did not follow, but instead continued to sell. On January 27th, the company's holdings through the Stock Connect had fallen to 0.27%. Guidance before the annual report However, on January 29th, the attitude of the capital through the Stock Connect seemed to have made a 180-degree turn. According to broker trading data, on January 29th, the top five sellers of ENNOGEN-B were Fuzhe, CITIC SEC, Changqiao, Yingli, and Futu Securities, selling 1.7432 million shares, 0.7818 million shares, 0.5976 million shares, 0.2218 million shares, and 0.0894 million shares, respectively. As for the buyers, the top five buyers were the Hong Kong Stock Connect (Shanghai), the Hong Kong Stock Connect (Shenzhen), Invesco, BNP Paribas, and Huatai Financial Holdings, buying 2.2206 million shares, 1.0010 million shares, 0.0976 million shares, 0.0878 million shares, and 0.0602 million shares, respectively. It is clear that the capital through the Stock Connect had a total net buying volume of 3.2216 million shares on that day, accounting for 93% of the total net buying volume of the top five brokers on that day, becoming the absolute buying force of ENNOGEN-B on that day. The company's holdings through the Stock Connect also increased to 1.02% within a day. The rapid change in attitude of the capital through the Stock Connect on January 29th may be related to the market trend on January 27th. Looking at the previous trends, after experiencing the "roller coaster" market before and after joining the Stock Connect, ENNOGEN-B's stock price had dropped from the pre-Connect peak of 44.98 Hong Kong dollars to around 30 Hong Kong dollars, and the BOLL line once again showed accelerated shrinkage. With the company's stock price showing distinct signs of stabilization and forming a phase of low-level consolidation, it seemed to indicate an impending turnaround. This time, the main funds made a test move with a "doji" on January 27th. On that day, in the first 15 minutes of trading, ENNOGEN-B's stock price suddenly surged, with an intraday increase of nearly 60%, before quickly falling back, ultimately closing up by 3.34%. During the low-level consolidation phase, the stock pulled out a candlestick with a long upper shadow, usually indicating that the main funds were launching an aggressive test movement upwards to test the stability of the chips and the resistance on the upper level, while discreetly signaling a further upward move. Looking at the volume, on the day of the high rise on January 27th, ENNOGEN-B had a significant increase in volume, with a daily trading volume of 11.1614 million shares. However, the volume significantly decreased on the subsequent day of correction, indicating limited selling pressure from internal funds and no intention of fleeing by the main funds. Subsequently, on January 29th, ENNOGEN-B once again saw a surge in volume and pulled out another long upper shadow line, to some extent indicating a second verification of the main trial move. On January 30th, the trading volume of ENNOGEN-B dropped again to 1.5356 million shares, with the main funds clearly indicating their intention to stay. Although ENNOGEN-B fell by 5.28% that day, the repeated falls and rises may indicate that the main funds were preparing for a possible formal rise through suppression and washing the chips.