Standard Chartered: It is expected that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates again this year, and the probability of extreme situations in the global market is higher.

Standard Chartered Bank released a research report stating that the global economic growth rate is expected to remain at 3.4% in 2026, consistent with 2025. New economic growth drivers are beginning to form, and future growth may be more driven by domestic demand and fiscal policy. The bank stated that US economic growth is expected to remain strong, with the economic growth forecast revised from 1.7% to 2.3%. Inflation pressure in the US may limit the Federal Reserve's ability to further ease monetary policy, thus it is expected that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates again this year. However, policy uncertainty, the US midterm elections, and the change in Federal Reserve chairmanship may all affect investment sentiment and policy direction. Looking ahead, Standard Chartered Bank stated that as market risk factors intensify, trade policy uncertainty persists, and geopolitical risks affect a wider range of regions, the probability of extreme situations occurring in the global market this year is higher. In terms of the Chinese economy, the bank expects the mainland's economic growth to maintain a steady momentum, driven by investments in technology, productivity growth, and policies to promote domestic demand. Even though China's foreign trade growth may moderate this year, actively diversifying trade partners and easing tensions in US-China trade friction may help mitigate related impacts.