Guotou Securities International: Focus on investment opportunities in the coking coal sector, recommending China Risun Group (01907).

Guotou Securities International released a research report stating that the Hong Kong and A-share coking coal sector collectively rose, mainly due to the market's enthusiasm for the sector brought about by demand and inflation expectations. The overall valuation of the coking coal sector is currently at a historical low and may be approaching a turning point in the future. It is recommended to pay attention to this sector. The bank believes that the main reason for the rise in the sector is the collective resonance of the natural resources sector, with coal and coke sectors showing a significant increase in heat driven by non-ferrous metals and oil. The recommended target is CHINA RISUN GP (01907). Looking back at 2025, the annual production of coking coal and coking coal was 504 million tons, an increase of 2.9% compared to the previous year, while downstream crude steel production was 960 million tons, a decrease of 4.4% compared to the previous year. In the first half of 2025, due to loose supply, weak demand, and the suppression of coal prices by Mongolian coal imports, coke prices continued to fall. In the second half of the year, the "excessive production inspection" policy was introduced, restricting coal mines from producing excessively, leading to a rise in coal prices and a warming of coke prices. In December 2025 and January 2026, coal companies gradually resumed production, while softer-than-expected demand led to a decline in coal and coke prices. According to the iFind database, as of January 20, 2026, the price of quasi-primary metallurgical coke was 1,346.4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. In 2026, it is important to pay attention to the direction of policies, including the continued implementation of the "excessive production inspection" policy for coal, as well as the implementation of policies for capacity replacement and the closure of unqualified capacity in the coking coal industry. At the same time, it is necessary to pay attention to the extent of recovery in the downstream real estate industry, as demand from the real estate sector will have a significant impact on the coking coal industry. Currently, there are certain expectations in the market for the recovery of the real estate industry.