Citibank: The price of copper is expected to reach $15,000 to $16,000 per ton in the next few weeks due to Chinese demand, but there is not much confidence in continued upward momentum.

Citibank released a research report stating that the price of copper has surged significantly, briefly surpassing the target price of $14,000 per ton set in the near term. Chinese investors, driven by the momentum of rising precious metal prices and a weak US dollar, have outpaced the selling pressure from weak physical fundamentals and investors outside of China. Citibank lacks confidence in the recent trend of copper prices; in the next two weeks, it is very likely that Chinese investors will further allocate or rotate funds to base metals to counter the rising prices of precious metals. Against the backdrop of silver and gold prices skyrocketing, it is not impossible for copper prices to soar to $15,000 to $16,000 per ton. However, Citibank's basic expectation is that even as resistance to high metal prices intensifies in the physical market, copper prices will still be maintained around $13,000 per ton in 2026, enough to achieve market supply and demand balance this year. Citibank stated that while it is not surprising to see copper prices reach $15,000 to $16,000 per ton, they are not very confident in the sustainability of this buying pressure. If it does continue, it is more likely to happen in the short term before the Spring Festival, which could be a trigger point for profit-taking. Citibank also stated that in recent years, due to the slower-than-expected proliferation of electric vehicles in markets outside of China, global electric vehicle sales growth has slowed. Frequent policy changes have had a negative impact on markets outside of China, despite some offset by the Chinese market in recent years. Early signs of saturation and slowing growth have appeared in the domestic electric vehicle market in China, the world's largest market. Exports are expected to benefit from the anticipated policy shift in Europe, where Europe is expected to be more accepting of Chinese automobile imports. With overall demand growth slowing, it is expected to restrain the growth of energy transition materials related to copper and battery materials such as lithium, nickel, and cobalt.