Goldman Sachs has slightly lowered its target price for Sands China (01928) to 23.2 Hong Kong dollars. The fourth quarter performance is slightly below expectations.

Goldman Sachs released a research report stating that Sands China (01928) fourth-quarter performance was slightly below expectations, with adjusted EBITDA rising by 1% to $608 million for the quarter, lower than the market's expected $610 million to $640 million. If the VIP win rate is adjusted from 3.9% to the theoretical value of 3.3%, EBITDA will decrease by $26 million to $582 million, representing a 3% decrease quarterly or a 2% increase year-on-year. They gave a "buy" rating. Looking ahead to 2026, management remains relatively optimistic about the prospects of the Macau gaming industry and does not believe that the World Cup will have a significant impact on total gaming revenue. The bank forecasts EBITDA profit margins for 2026 and 27 to be 31% and 31.4%, with corresponding property EBITDA of $2.5 billion and $2.7 billion, close to the company's midterm target of $2.7 billion to $2.8 billion, but lower than the $3 billion level in 2019. Given the lower EBITDA profit margins, the bank has lowered its EBITDA forecasts for 2026 to 2027 by 4% to 5%, with a target price revised down from HK$24.20 to HK$23.20. With no major capital expenditures expected in the coming years, the group is expected to continue increasing dividends.