Tensions between the US and Iran have pushed oil prices up to $70. OPEC+ still tends to continue to maintain production levels unchanged.

Despite the strong threats from the United States to Iran, pushing international oil prices to near $70 per barrel, OPEC+ currently leans towards maintaining existing supply restrictions as per the established plan. Several representatives at the meeting indicated that the alliance is expected to confirm at the online meeting on Sunday its decision to continue the first quarter's "pause in further production increases" in March. It is reported that the eight OPEC+ member countries, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, will convene a meeting on Sunday to review the production policy for March. March is the last month of the alliance's previously set plan to pause production increases in the first quarter. Three representatives reiterated on Thursday that it is currently expected that OPEC+ will approve the continuation of the existing strategy, but some representatives also pointed out that if there is a major supply disruption, the alliance may be forced to adjust its position. It is worth noting that the increase in oil prices this week has not significantly changed OPEC+'s cautious attitude. The price of London Brent crude oil rose to $70.35 per barrel on Thursday, reaching its highest level since September last year. This rebound in the market is mainly driven by geopolitical risks, with U.S. President Trump warning that Iran must reach a new arrangement on the nuclear agreement or face military strikes. Analysts point out that OPEC+ typically does not adjust its supply policy rapidly due to geopolitical tensions, preferring to wait for actual supply disruptions before taking action. Looking back at the previous policy, the eight OPEC+ countries swiftly restored some production last year in an effort to regain global market share. However, as fuel consumption entered a seasonal downturn, the alliance decided in November last year to pause further production increases in the first quarter of this year to prevent worsening supply-demand imbalances. This decision has been somewhat validated by the market. Although many institutions still forecast a possible global oil market supply surplus, the turmoil in Iran and supply disruptions in the OPEC+ member Kazakhstan have provided support for oil prices. However, the more uncertain decision will come at the next meeting in early March. At that time, OPEC+ must decide whether to resume production increases after the end of the first quarter's pause period, or to adopt a more cautious supply management strategy. Data shows that OPEC+'s major members theoretically still have about 1.2 million barrels per day of production shut off since 2023, waiting to gradually recover. However, the alliance failed to fully meet its commitments in production last year, leading to doubts in the market about the remaining recoverable production capacity. Countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE have recently expressed a willingness to continue increasing production. Representatives stated that last year's unexpected production measures were partly aimed at regaining market share lost to competitors such as U.S. shale oil producers. However, there is still debate about whether further production increases are realistic. The International Energy Agency predicts that with demand growth slowing down and non-OPEC oil-producing countries like the U.S., Brazil, Canada, and Guyana continuing to expand supply, the global oil market may face a record supply surplus. Institutions like JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley even believe that to prevent oil prices from falling again in an oversupplied market, OPEC+ may need to take new production reduction measures instead of continuing to increase production. Last year, oil prices fell by 18%, causing financial strain on several OPEC+ member countries. The capital Riyadh in Saudi Arabia was forced to reduce spending on flagship projects and seek alternative financing channels to fill the funding gap, making stable oil prices even more crucial for alliance members.