CMSC: The electronic price increase trend is expected to continue until the end of this year or even the beginning of next year. Recommended to pay attention to semiconductor, components and other industries with resonance between quantity and price, as well as profit improvement.

CMSC released a research report stating that the recent wave of price increases in electronics has fully erupted. This round of price increases is not simply a cyclical fluctuation, but a structural change driven by the explosive growth of the AI industry and the simultaneous rise in upstream raw material costs. Looking ahead, the demand for AI is expected to continue to grow rapidly, with the weakening US dollar and a background of resource nationalism leading to long-term constraints on metal supply. Metal prices are expected to continue to rise, and the wave of electronic price increases is expected to continue until the end of this year or even the beginning of next year. It is recommended to pay attention to semiconductor, components, and non-ferrous metals that show resonance in terms of quantity and price, and improvement in profitability. Key points from CMSC: In Q2 of 2025, memory prices are expected to reach a turning point due to reduced production by original manufacturers and improved demand from end-users. As major manufacturers shift their production capacity to high-margin products like HBM, the supply of consumer-grade memory chips will continue to shrink, leading to a widening gap between supply and demand and ongoing price increases. By the end of 2025, due to the rapid increase in raw material costs such as industrial metals, price hikes will gradually spread from memory chips to components, packaging, and the entire industry chain, leading to increased cost pressures on consumer electronics. Since the beginning of 2026, major manufacturers have been issuing price increase notices, signaling a comprehensive trend of price increases in the electronics industry. [Information Technology] This week, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, the Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Index, and the DXI Index all saw increases. Prices of DRAM and NAND memory have increased this week. The three-month rolling year-on-year growth rate of semiconductor manufacturing equipment shipments in Japan in December have narrowed. The three-month rolling year-on-year decline rate of fiber optic cable production in December have also narrowed. Panel prices have risen in January, and the three-month rolling year-on-year growth rate of NB LCD shipments in December have expanded. [Midstream Manufacturing] This week, some positive electrode materials, lithium raw materials, and cobalt products have seen price increases, while lithium hexafluorophosphate (LiPF6) and dimethyl carbonate (DMC) prices have fallen. The photovoltaic price index has increased, with silicon prices in the industry chain rising, while prices of silicon wafers and components remain steady. The three-month rolling year-on-year decline rate of packaging equipment production in December has narrowed, while the three-month rolling year-on-year growth rate of metal forming machine tool production has also narrowed. This week, the average weekly throughput of goods at ports and container throughput at ports has seen expanded year-on-year growth rates. CCFI has declined, while CCBFI, BDTI, and BDI have all increased. [Consumer Demand] Prices of fresh milk have increased, while overall sugar prices have decreased. Pork prices have increased, with piglet wholesale prices remaining steady compared to the previous week, and average prices of live pigs decreasing. In terms of profits from pig farming, profits from both self-bred and purchased pig farming have increased. In the poultry farming sector, chick prices have decreased. The vegetable price index has decreased, while corn and cotton futures settlement prices have increased; film revenue and average movie ticket prices have increased; household appliance retailers' average sales turnover has narrowed the year-on-year decrease; and the price index for Chinese herbal medicines has decreased. [Commodities] The average daily turnover of construction steel has decreased; prices of steel billets remain steady, while rebar prices have decreased. In terms of coal prices, prices of Qinhuangdao blend coal have decreased, while prices of Shanxi prime coking coal at Jingtang Port have increased; futures settlement prices for coke and coking coal have both decreased. In terms of inventory, coal inventories at Qinhuangdao Port have increased, while coking coal inventories at Jingtang Port have decreased, and coke inventories at Tianjin Port have increased. The national cement price index has decreased. Brent international crude oil prices have increased, and the price index for chemical products in China has increased, with prices of chemical products generally on the rise, especially for fuel oil and asphalt. Industrial metal prices have generally increased this week, with prices of copper, aluminum, zinc, tin, cobalt, and nickel increasing, while prices of lead have decreased; most inventories have increased, and prices of gold and silver futures and spot have increased. [Finance and Real Estate] Net injections into the money market; turnover rate and daily turnover of A shares have decreased. Land transaction premium rates have increased, while the transaction area of commercial residential properties has decreased. The number of second-hand homes listed for sale across the country has decreased, with the listing price index increasing. [Utilities] Factory prices for natural gas have increased, and the average daily electricity generation of key power plants across the country has narrowed its year-on-year decline in the past 12 weeks. Risk Warning: Industry support may not meet expectations, and there may be macroeconomic fluctuations.