Trump increases threats to Iran, boosting risk premium! Brent oil rises for three consecutive days to touch $70.

Under the push of US President Trump to escalate military threats against Iran, oil prices have risen for the third consecutive day. Brent crude futures rose by about 2.7% at one point, breaking through $70 per barrel for the first time since September last year; WTI crude futures also rose above $65 per barrel at one point. As of the publication, Brent crude futures were up 1.89% at $69.69 per barrel; WTI crude futures were up 1.27% at $64.48 per barrel. According to reports, as the US military forces surround Iran, Trump has issued a "final ultimatum" to Iran - considering launching new major strikes against Iran. Trump tweeted on social media on Wednesday that a large fleet is heading to Iran, time is running out for Iran, and he hopes Iran can quickly sit down at the negotiating table and negotiate a "beneficial agreement for all parties." The report cited sources as saying that options Trump is considering include airstrikes on Iranian leaders and security officials, as well as attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities and government institutions, but no final decision has been made yet. This is the third consecutive day that Trump has issued threats against Iran. In response, Iran has strongly stated that it will consider any military action from the US as the beginning of a war, and "the finger is already on the trigger." Since entering 2026, oil prices have continued to rebound, reversing previous market expectations of severe oversupply suppressing oil prices. Instead, geopolitical tensions from Venezuela to Iran, as well as major supply disruptions in Kazakhstan, have supported the rise in oil prices. Trump's latest threat to Iran has injected a risk premium into oil prices. As traders seek to hedge the risk of a new conflict between the US and Iran, the price of call options has been consistently higher than put options for about 14 months, the longest such period. In addition, the increase in the size of call options has also grown at the fastest rate in at least six years. In recent years, the options market has been a major way for traders to bet on the rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East. This trend started in October 2023 when a new round of Israeli-Palestinian conflict erupted. After the US launched strikes against Iran last year, the premium on call options surged, but quickly fell back after Iran confirmed that its oil facilities were not damaged. Hedge funds have also increased their net long bets on crude oil to the highest level since August last year, and several volatility indicators have risen to multi-month highs in recent weeks. Analysts at Citigroup such as Anthony Yuen stated, "The possibility of a strike on Iran has pushed geopolitical risk premium in oil prices up by about $3 to $4 per barrel. Despite expectations of a large oversupply at the beginning of the year, oil prices may remain at levels higher than most people expect." If the US launches a military strike against Iran, it could jeopardize oil supplies in the Middle East region - which accounts for about one-third of global oil supply. Iran's retaliatory actions could include disrupting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula that plays a crucial role in global oil and liquefied natural gas transportation. The energy consulting company Rapidan Energy Group recently raised the probability of Iran retaliating against the US with a significant disruption in energy flow in the Gulf region from 15% to 20%.