Lyon: Sands China (01928) fourth quarter EBITDA falls short of expectations.

Lyon released a research report stating that it gives a "outperform the market" rating to Sands China (01928) with a target price of HK$22.9. In the fourth quarter of 2025, EBITDA is expected to increase by 6% year-on-year to $608 million, including a positive impact of $26 million due to VIP room win rates higher than normal levels, but still 3% and 10% lower than market and the bank's expectations. The EBITDA profit margin is expected to decrease by 2.7 percentage points to 29.6% year-on-year, mainly due to the increase in operating expenses and the increase in the proportion of high-end gaming revenue. Looking ahead, the company sees that promotional efforts have begun to stabilize, with a focus on expanding the EBITDA scale in the future.