Preview of US Stock Market | The three major stock index futures all rose, as the Federal Reserve interest rate decision approached. Microsoft, Meta, and Tesla announced their earnings after the market closed.

Pre-market market trends 1. As of January 28th (Wednesday), pre-market trading for the US stock market showed that the futures for the three major US stock indexes were all up. At the time of writing, the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose by 0.04%, the S&P 500 index futures rose by 0.37%, and the Nasdaq futures rose by 0.95%. 2. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index fell by 0.10%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell by 0.44%, the French CAC 40 index fell by 0.96%, and the European Stoxx 50 index rose by 0.03%. 3. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil rose by 0.32% to $62.59 per barrel. Brent crude oil rose by 0.12% to $66.67 per barrel. Market news Preview of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision: Rate cut or pause, how will Powell respond to political questioning? The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will be officially announced at 3 am Beijing time on Thursday, followed by a press conference by Powell. Powell may try to shift market attention to economic fundamentals. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady this week after three consecutive rate cuts of 25 basis points each. However, this press conference is significant as it marks Powell's first public appearance since the Fed received a grand jury subpoena and coincides with the controversy over the removal of another Fed official by the Supreme Court. Powell will likely face sharp questions about political interference, defending central bank independence, and personal plans after his term expires in May. The decision to keep rates unchanged this month may win broad support from policymakers. Although most officials recognized the importance of supporting the weak labor market through rate cuts, another group of policymakers has consistently emphasized the need to address ongoing high inflation issues. Riedel emerges as the top contender for Fed chair, bond market sees surge in rate cut bets. With the growing calls for BlackRock, Inc. Chief Investment Officer Rick Riedel to be the next Fed chairman, bond futures traders are increasing their bets on the Fed shifting to a dovish policy. In recent days, there has been a significant increase in the flow of funds in the interest rate futures market linked to the Fed's policy benchmark rates - secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) and federal funds rate. At the same time, prediction markets show that the odds of Riedel becoming the next Fed chairman have surged to the top position. Data on federal funds futures and SOFR futures positions released Monday showed a continued increase in demand for new trades, which would benefit from a more aggressive rate-cutting path than the current pricing suggests. As a Wall Street veteran, the market believes that if Riedel takes the helm at the Fed, he will pursue a market-oriented policy approach. Focus on the crypto market! US heavyweight hearing postponed to Thursday, CLARITY Act reaches a critical step in breaking the "legislative deadlock"! The Senate Agriculture Committee has postponed the scheduled hearing on the cryptocurrency market structure bill to Thursday, citing winter storm attacks in most parts of the US. The committee will debate and vote on the bill and its proposed amendments at the hearing. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) have also postponed their joint attendance events originally scheduled for Tuesday to Thursday. The Senate Agriculture Committee had intended for lawmakers to debate amendments and vote on their version of the bill, which aims to clarify how the CFTC regulates the cryptocurrency market. The House passed the CLARITY Act on market structure in July 2025, which aims to address years of regulatory uncertainty through a structured framework that clearly defines digital assets, intermediary roles, and disclosure obligations. Silver has become "leveraged gold"! Citigroup predicts a surge to $150 within three months. Citigroup Group expects the spot silver price to reach a record $150 per ounce within three months. Analysts believe that the strong buying momentum from China will continue, and higher prices are needed to stimulate existing holders to sell. The analysts added, "Silver is performing like 'gold squared' or 'leveraged gold.' We believe this situation could continue until silver appears expensive relative to gold according to historical standards." Citigroup analysts said that if the gold-to-silver price ratio returns to its low point of 32:1 in 2011, silver trading prices could reach as high as $170 per ounce. Citigroup added that despite facing many bearish factors, silver prices have still risen. These factors include outflows from silver exchange-traded funds (ETFs), selling by futures market speculators, and a decrease in US warehouse inventories - which enhances the availability of supplies in other regions. Downstream demand shows reluctance! Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.: Cracks in the bull market for metals, declining demand may drag down the rally. In the first few weeks of 2026, as global investors bet on tightening supply, a weakening US dollar, and interest rate cuts by the Fed, there has been a significant influx of capital into the industrial commodities market, driving prices of metals such as copper and aluminum higher. However, cautious analysts in the industry have noticed a continuing decline in trading activity in the Chinese market. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. recently stated that due to the divergence between soaring prices and weakening actual demand in the manufacturing industry, there may be resistance to the rally in the prices of base metals this year. The bank said, "Downstream industrial production enterprises have begun to show signs of resistance, and we have noted a certain degree of decline in demand." Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.'s latest copper market research shows that with downstream buyers in industries such as consumer electronics and hardware reducing purchases, volumes for processing companies have declined by 10% to 30%. Stock-specific news AI demand drives capital expenditure for chip manufacturers! ASML Holding NV ADR(ASML.US) records Q4 orders well above expectations, raises 2026 sales guidance. Demand for ASML Holding NV ADR's cutting-edge chip manufacturing equipment, driven by chip manufacturers increasing capital expenditure to expand capacity for artificial intelligence (AI)-related chips, has pushed the company's Q4 orders well above market expectations. Data shows that ASML Holding NV ADR's Q4 orders reached a record 13.2 billion, significantly exceeding analysts' average expectations of 6.85 billion. The company noted that EUV (extreme ultraviolet lithography) orders in Q4 totaled 7.4 billion, accounting for more than half of the total orders. Q4 sales were 9.718 billion, a 29% year-on-year increase. Gross profit was 5.068 billion, a 31% year-on-year increase; gross margin was 52.2%, up from 51.6% in the same period last year. Net profit was 2.84 billion, a 34% increase year-on-year. Earnings per share were 7.35, up from 5.49 in the same period last year. ASML Holding NV ADR also raised its 2026 performance guidance. The company now expects full-year 2026 sales to be between 34-39 billion, with the midpoint of the forecast range above analysts' average expectations of 35 billion. The company had previously predicted that 2026 sales would be flat compared to 2025. As of the time of writing, ASML Holding NV ADR was up over 6% in pre-market trading. ASML Holding NV ADR swings the "layoff" axe! Plans to reduce 1,700 positions to improve organizational efficiency. Despite continued strong performance, ASML Holding NV ADR announced a plan to cut around 1,700 positions. The company's CEO, Christoph Fakay, announced the layoffs while also revealing that they will mainly affect the technical and IT departments, predominantly managerial positions in the Netherlands, but also impacting operations in the US. The layoff percentage stands at around 4% based on the company's current total employee count. The company stated that this adjustment was prompted by feedback about the "overly complex organizational structure," which may result in excessive time spent coordinating processes. HDD demand surges! Seagate(STX.US) reports stellar performance, capacity sold out in 2026. Driven by explosive demand from global tech companies for high-performance near-line HDDs and enterprise-grade data center SSDs, Seagate's latest performance and outlook exceed analysts' expectations. In the second fiscal quarter ending in early January, Seagate's revenue increased by 22% year-on-year to $2.83 billion, surpassing analysts' average expectations of $2.73 billion; adjusted earnings per share were $3.11, also higher than analysts' average expectations of $2.81. The company's Q2 gross margin and operating profit margin hit historic highs, with non-GAAP gross margin soaring to 42.2% and non-GAAP operating profit margin reaching 31.9%. Furthermore, Seagate expects revenue for the third fiscal quarter to be $2.90 billion (plus or minus $100 million), better than analysts' average expectations of $2.77 billion; it also expects adjusted earnings per share for the third fiscal quarter to be $3.40 (plus or minus 20 cents), surpassing analysts' average expectations of $2.96. The company's CEO stated that Seagate's near-line HDD capacity has been "sold out until the full year 2026," with the company expecting to start accepting orders for the first half of 2027 in the coming months. As of the time of writing, Seagate was up over 10% in pre-market trading. Texas Instruments Incorporated(TXN.US) reports strong guidance, data center revenue surges 70%. The financial report shows that Texas Instruments Incorporated's Q4 revenue increased by 10% year-on-year to $44.2 billion, slightly below the market's expectation of $44.3 billion; earnings per share were $1.27, below the market's expectation of $1.30. However, the company's guidance is better than the market's expectations, indicating a significant rebound in demand for analog chips and MCUs in large industrial equipment and automotive sectors, especially as the anticipated "AI data center construction boom drives strong recovery in analog chip demand." The company expects Q1 revenue to be $43.2-46.8 billion, with the midpoint of the forecast range slightly above the market's expectation of $44.2 billion; it also expects earnings per share for Q1 to be $1.22-1.48, with the midpoint of the forecast range better than the market's expectation of $1.26. As of the time of writing, Texas Instruments Incorporated was up over 8% in pre-market trading. United Microelectronics Corp. Sponsored ADR(UMC.US) reports Q4 revenue exceeding expectations but profit slightly below, Q1 guidance trending conservative. Leading semiconductor foundry United Microelectronics Corp. Sponsored ADR announced that its revenue for the fourth quarter of 2025 increased by 2.4% year-on-year to $1.97 billion, exceeding market expectations by $60 million; GAAP earnings per share were $0.129, slightly lower than market expectations by $0.01. Profitability-wise, the Q4 gross margin was 30.7%, and the operating profit margin was 19.8%. On the technology node contributions, the 22/28 nanometer process revenue accounted for 36%. Q1 performance guidance trends towards conservative. Wafer shipments are expected to remain stable, the average selling price (in USD) expected to stay strong, the gross margin expected to fall to around the high end of 20%, and capacity utilization expected to be in the mid-range of 70%. As of the time of writing, United Microelectronics Corp. Sponsored ADR was down over 9% in pre-market trading. AT&T(T.US) reports Q4 performance exceeding expectations, plans to repurchase approximately $8 billion in common stock in 2026. The financial report shows that AT&T's Q4 revenue increased by 3.6% year-on-year to $33.5 billion, better than the market's expectation of $32.87 billion; adjusted earnings per share were $0.52, better than the market's expectation of $0.46. Revenue growth was driven by increased revenue from the company's mobile business, consumer wireline business, and Mexican business, but the decline in the company's wireline business segment also had a certain offsetting effect. Enterprise wireline business revenues declined by 7.5%, due to reduced revenue from traditional services and transitional services (including phone services). Meanwhile, mobile business sales increased by 5.3%, and home wireline business sales increased by 2.9%. The company expects adjusted earnings per share for 2026 to be $2.25-2.35. The company also plans to repurchase approximately $8 billion of common stock in 2026. As of the time of writing, AT&T was up over 4% in pre-market trading. Amazon.com, Inc.(AMZN.US) announces layoffs of 16,000 employees. Amazon.com, Inc. has announced that it will lay off an estimated 16,000 employees. The company stated that it will provide most US employees with a 90-day internal job search opportunity. For employees who cannot find new positions within Amazon.com, Inc. or choose not to seek new positions, the company will provide transition support, including severance pay, career placement services, and medical insurance benefits. Amazon.com, Inc. also stated that it has been working to strengthen its organizational structure by streamlining hierarchies, enhancing accountability, and eliminating bureaucracy. While many teams completed organizational restructuring in October last year, other teams have only completed this work recently. Important economic data and events forecast 3:00 am Beijing time next day - FOMC of the Federal Reserve announces interest rate decision 3:30 am Beijing time next day - Federal Reserve Chair Powell holds a monetary policy press conference Earnings forecast Thursday morning: Microsoft Corporation(MSFT.US), Meta(META.US), Tesla, Inc.(TSLA.US), Lam Research Corporation(LRCX.US), IBM(IBM.US) Thursday pre-market: SAP(SAP.US), Nokia Oyj Sponsored ADR(NOK.US), STMicroelectronics NV ADR RegS(STM.US), Lloyds Banking Group plc(LYG.US), Deutsche Bank(DB.US), TAL Education Group Sponsored ADR Class A(TAL.US), Mastercard(MA.US), Southwest Airlines Co.(LUV.US), Carter's, Inc.(CAT.US), Lockheed Martin(LMT.US)