Guotai Haitong: Global new data center power liquid cooling shifts from "optional configuration" to "mandatory compliance".

Guotai Haitong released a research report stating that 2025 can be seen as the "grounding year" for liquid cooling in data centers. Various regions around the world have imposed strict constraints on the power usage efficiency of new data centers, promoting energy efficiency and emission reduction in data centers. This has moved liquid cooling from being an "optional configuration" to a "mandatory compliance" requirement. In terms of technology routes, the competition and complementarity between cold plate and immersion technologies are leading the development direction of the liquid cooling industry. Currently, cold plate technology has secured a mainstream position in commercial deployment with an 80% market share, while immersion technology is recognized as the core direction for future high-density computing scenarios due to its extreme heat dissipation potential. It is recommended to pay attention to Chinese companies in the fluorinated liquid industry with technological accumulation and industrial chain advantages. The main points of Guotai Haitong are as follows: 2025 can be seen as the "grounding year" for data center liquid cooling, where the physical limit of computing power density and the rigid constraints of energy efficiency evaluation intersect in the same time window. On one end, chip manufacturers enhance computing power by increasing transistor density, core count, and frequency, resulting in a significant increase in chip power consumption, making air cooling ineffective technically and economically. On the other end, regions around the world have imposed strict constraints on the power usage efficiency of new data centers, promoting energy efficiency and emission reduction in data centers, moving liquid cooling from being an "optional configuration" to a "mandatory compliance" requirement. The competition and complementarity between cold plate and immersion technologies are leading the development direction of the liquid cooling industry. Currently, cold plate technology has secured a mainstream position in commercial deployment with an 80% market share, while immersion technology is recognized as the core direction for future high-density computing scenarios due to its extreme heat dissipation potential. The iteration of liquid cooling technology is still progressing rapidly, and innovative versions of the current system, such as dual-phase phase change cold plates and microchannel cover plates, have become key options for high-end ASIC/GPU platforms like Rubin and Rubin Ultra. This trend will directly drive the cooling liquid category to extend from water-based to high-value-added directions, such as fluorine-based working fluids. The choice of cooling liquid directly affects the safety, lifespan, and operational costs of the entire liquid cooling system, and is one of the most value-dense links in the liquid cooling industry chain. Different types of liquid cooling systems have significant differences in structural design, working principles, and application scenarios, thus placing differentiated requirements on the physical and chemical properties of cooling liquids. Cold plate liquid cooling systems are primarily based on water-based solutions; oil-based coolants refer to cooling mediums based on organic carbon-hydrogen compounds, widely used in single-phase immersion liquid cooling systems; fluorinated liquids are the most ideal cooling liquids for data centers, but due to cost considerations, they are currently more suitable for high-power applications, such as two-phase cold plates, immersion systems, and microchannel inlets that require high heat dissipation. In terms of competitive landscape, the water-based cooling liquid market is highly open, with a large number of participants and no clear monopoly; the oil-based cooling liquid market, dominated by synthetic hydrocarbon-based oils, is highly specialized with high technical barriers, foreign brands predominating, and clear division of labor in the industry chain. A group of domestic companies, represented by Sinopec Great Wall Lubricants, are rapidly catching up, focusing on cost optimization and domestic substitutes. The silicone oil market has limited applications and has not yet formed a scaled industry ecosystem, showing characteristics of being "specialized for niche markets, with few participants, foreign-dominated, and lacking domestic presence." The fluorinated liquid industry is undergoing a profound transformation, with traditional international giants represented by 3M strategically exiting due to environmental factors, while a group of Chinese companies with technological accumulation and industrial chain advantages are rising rapidly, seeking to grasp this historical window of "domestic substitution." The development of data center cooling liquid is evolving along the four-dimensional path of "higher efficiency, lower energy consumption, better environmental protection, and smarter systems," manifested as scenario-based technology routes, diversified material systems, service-oriented industrial ecology, and green overall operation. It will not only be a single functional medium in the future, but a comprehensive thermal management solution that deeply integrates material science, thermodynamics, and intelligent control technology. Risk factors: Risks of technological iteration and route competition, fluctuations in market demand and technology penetration below expectations, supply chain and cost risks, environmental policy and regulatory risks.