New Record Achieved As Spot Gold Tops $5,000 For The First Time; Institutions Set $6,600 Target

Gold continued its historic advance into 2026, extending the strong rally seen last year and establishing fresh highs. During Asian trading on Monday, January 26, spot gold breached the psychologically significant $5,000 per ounce level for the first time, a milestone reached only about 100 days after the metal first crossed $4,000 per ounce.

At the time of reporting, spot gold was trading up 1.08% at $5,036.57, having touched an intraday record of $5,043.90 per ounce. Gold futures also rose by more than 1%, briefly trading above $5,080. Other precious metals advanced as well, with silver gaining over 2% to a record $106.56 per ounce and platinum edging higher to $2,798.46 per ounce.

The price surge follows a dramatic 2025 in which international gold prices climbed more than 60%, the largest annual increase since 1979. Last week alone, gold rose in excess of 8%, and year‑to‑date gains now approach 17%. Market observers attribute the rally to a combination of increased central bank purchases, escalating geopolitical tensions and a softer U.S. dollar.

Central banks around the world have resumed sizable net purchases of gold. The World Gold Council reported that central banks continued to buy in November, with net purchases totaling 45 tonnes; while this was lower than October’s level, it remained elevated relative to earlier months of 2025. By November, cumulative central bank purchases for 2025 reached 297 tonnes, with emerging market central banks accounting for the bulk of demand. Poland, Kazakhstan, Brazil, Turkey and China were identified as major buyers.

Poland’s central bank announced approval of a plan to acquire up to 150 tonnes of gold, a move that would raise its reserves to 700 tonnes. Official data from the People’s Bank of China show that China’s gold holdings stood at 74.15 million ounces at the end of December 2025, reflecting an increase of 30,000 ounces that month and marking the 14th consecutive month of accumulation since November 2024. This sustained buying has reinforced long‑term market confidence.

Geopolitical developments have also supported safe‑haven demand. Tensions between the United States and Europe over Greenland have intensified recently; although U.S. President Donald Trump has ruled out using force to seize the island from Denmark, pressure on European counterparts has continued. At the same time, a weakening dollar has made gold more affordable for many international buyers. Bloomberg’s Dollar Spot Index fell 1.6% last week, its largest weekly decline since May, amid renewed tariff rhetoric and related market concerns.

Gold’s appeal has been further strengthened by its role as a hedge against currency depreciation and by the reduced opportunity cost of holding a non‑yielding asset when real rates are under pressure. The Federal Reserve is scheduled to meet this week, and markets generally expect no immediate policy easing; the CME FedWatch Tool indicates that investors do not anticipate rate cuts before June.

Major financial institutions remain bullish on the outlook for gold. Jefferies Group has issued an especially aggressive projection, forecasting that prices could reach $6,600 per ounce. Goldman Sachs last week raised its year‑end forecast to $5,400 per ounce from $4,900, citing the growing participation of private investors alongside central banks in competing for limited physical supply. Bank of America recently lifted its short‑term target to $6,000 per ounce, with analyst Michael Hartnett noting historical precedents in prior gold bull markets that support rapid price appreciation. Independent analyst Ross Norman projects a peak near $6,400 per ounce and an average price of $5,375 for the year.

Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, observed that investor fear of missing out has become a clear driver as prices repeatedly set new records, but he cautioned against dismissing the rally as purely speculative. Given ongoing government borrowing, uncertain long‑term debt sustainability and persistent central bank demand, gold’s role as a reserve diversification instrument remains firmly supported.