Commercial aircraft and capital equipment demand surged in November, with the largest increase in durable goods orders in six months recorded in the United States.

U.S. durable goods orders recorded their largest increase in six months in November, mainly driven by a significant increase in commercial aircraft and other capital equipment orders, showing that business investment momentum continues to strengthen going into 2026. Data released by the U.S. Commerce Department on Monday showed that durable goods orders rose by 5.3% in November from the previous month, following a revised 2.1% decline in October. The report was originally scheduled to be released earlier but was delayed due to the federal government shutdown. Durable goods refer to goods with a lifespan of at least three years, including machinery, vehicles, and electronic products. The data also showed that core capital goods orders, excluding aircraft and defense hardware (considered an important indicator of business equipment investment), increased by 0.7% in November, higher than market expectations, reflecting steady demand for equipment purchases by businesses. The report noted that commercial aircraft orders fluctuated significantly, with orders in November almost doubling by 98%. Boeing reported that it received a total of 164 aircraft orders in November, significantly higher than the 15 orders in October, and further rising to 175 aircraft last month. In terms of shipments, core capital goods shipments, excluding aircraft and defense products, increased by 0.4%. Economists generally believe that shipment indicators better reflect potential investment trends compared to order data, as there is a time lag between orders and actual deliveries. Furthermore, the durable goods report showed a broad-based increase in orders, with sectors such as communication equipment, computers, machinery, and electrical equipment all showing growth, indicating a comprehensive rebound in business spending. Economists expect that with businesses taking advantage of the "big and beautiful" tax legislation passed by President Trump last year, commercial investment is likely to further increase this year. In addition to investments in artificial intelligence, companies may be gradually adapting to a more favorable environment following the easing of trade policy uncertainties and reduced demand concerns, leading to a stronger willingness to spend. Chief U.S. economist at Santander US Capital Markets, Stephen Stanley, stated in the report, "Although uncertainty has not been completely eliminated, corporate executives seem to have enough information to drive decision-making forward." He added that the strong performance of core capital goods orders and shipments in the second half of last year indicates that business investment momentum is gradually building up going into 2026. However, shipments of non-defense capital goods, including aircraft, declined by 2%. The government places more emphasis on shipment data rather than order data in GDP accounting, as orders may be canceled, and shipments more directly reflect the contribution of equipment investment to economic growth. Before the release of the durable goods report, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model projected a slight decline in business equipment spending in the fourth quarter. Data shows that equipment investment contributed 0.28 percentage points to GDP in the third quarter.