In 2026, the roadmaps of the three major institutions continue to "tear apart" the oil market! IEA and EIA warn of massive oversupply, while OPEC insists that the market is approaching balance.

Oil traders attempting to predict this year's oil price trends are facing drastically different assessments of supply and demand prospects, with a multitude of views ranging from massive oversupply to a market that is roughly balanced. The three major global forecasting organizations - the International Energy Agency (IEA), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) - have all updated their forecasts, but disagreements persist, with the views of the two consumer-side organizations differing significantly from the outlook of the oil-producing countries. IEA predicts the largest scale of oversupply - with a daily average excess of over 4 million barrels in the first half of 2026, and a daily average excess of over 3.7 million barrels for the whole year. EIA's assessment is not far off, estimating a supply surplus of over 2.8 million barrels per day this year, peaking in the current quarter at over 3.5 million barrels per day. In contrast, calculations based on OPEC data show that the market will be closer to a balanced state, with supply only exceeding demand by about 600,000 barrels per day on average this year. The latest forecasts once again confirm the longstanding differences in positions of the three major organizations - they have long held disparate views on the issue of supply and demand balance in the oil market. Since OPEC and IEA do not directly forecast OPEC's production, these future supply and demand gaps need to be based on certain assumptions. In its report, IEA uses the current OPEC+ production agreement as a reference for future supply, and similarly analyzes OPEC data based on this basis to generate the charts above. Its analysis also assumes that the oil production of the three countries not included in the agreement - Iran, Libya, and Venezuela - will remain stable, at around 5.4 million barrels per day as of December last year. Demand Growth One key reason for different outlooks is the organizations' differing views on oil demand and its growth. IEA's demand forecast for 2026 is slightly below 105 million barrels per day, about 1.5 million barrels per day lower than OPEC's forecast. This gap has gradually narrowed since August last year: in the past five months, IEA increased its demand forecast by 540,000 barrels per day, while OPEC's judgement remained unchanged. IEA's more optimistic view compared to its own previous view is due to its expectation that the economic situation will gradually normalize after the turmoil caused by actual implementation of tariffs and threats affecting consumption beyond 2025. IEA currently expects global oil consumption to increase by 930,000 barrels per day in 2026, but this increase is only about two-thirds of what OPEC analysts predict. EIA's assessment of demand growth falls between the two. However, disagreements not only manifest in the differing growth intensity this year, but also reflect deeper, long-standing historical differences. OPEC analysts believe that since 2023, the average annual oil demand growth rate has been 1.3%, broadly consistent with the long-term pre-Covid growth trend. EIA's forecasted average annual growth rate is slightly lower, at 1.2%. This has led to a widening gap between EIA and OPEC in demand assessments: from about 1.2 million barrels per day in 2023, to 1.7 million barrels per day this year. The differences between OPEC and IEA are more significant. Their estimates of demand for 2023 differ by only 200,000 barrels per day, but by 2026, this gap has widened to over 1.5 million barrels per day. IEA believes that the average annual growth rate of oil consumption during the period from 2023 to 2026 will be 0.9%, significantly lower than the historical average. These three major organizations will continue to revise their demand forecasts, and even adjust their assessments of historical consumption levels.