Financial Report Outlook | Meta (META.US) Q4 revenue may increase by 21%, but AI burning money and metaverse black hole still a "thorn in the side" of the market.

Meta Platforms (META.US) is scheduled to announce its fourth-quarter earnings for 2025 on January 28, 2026, after the stock market closes. In the third-quarter financial report, Meta indicated that it expects fourth-quarter revenue for 2025 to be between $56 billion and $59 billion. The London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) has a consensus forecast of $56.59 billion, representing a year-over-year growth of approximately 21%, with earnings per share of $8.21. Additionally, the company also stated that it anticipates full-year expenses for 2025 to be between $116 billion and $118 billion, slightly higher than the previous expectation of $114 billion to $118 billion, with a year-over-year growth rate of 22% to 24%. Capital expenditures for 2025 (including principal payments on financing leases) will be between $70 billion and $72 billion, higher than the previous estimate of $66 billion to $72 billion. Highlights from the previous quarter In the third quarter of 2025, Meta reported revenue of $51.24 billion, exceeding expectations of $49.41 billion. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) were $7.25, higher than the expected $6.67, excluding one-time non-cash tax items. However, due to the impact of changes in the US tax law (the "Beautiful Act"), non-recurring tax expenses of $15.93 billion resulted in a significant decrease in EPS calculated under the Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) to $1.05. The company reported the following operational highlights for the third quarter of 2025: - Revenue: $51.24 billion, up 26% year over year - Daily Active Users (DAU) in the family: average of 3.54 billion in September 2025, up 8% year over year - Ad impressions: a 14% increase year over year in ad impressions for its applications - Average price per ad: 10% increase year over year - Number of employees: 78,450 as of September 30, 2025, up 8% year over year Meta CEO and founder Mark Zuckerberg emphasized the strong performance of the business and community in the quarter, stating, "Our business and community performed strongly this quarter. Meta's Super Intelligence Lab is off to a good start, and we continue to lead the industry in AI glasses. If we can capture even a small part of the future opportunities, the next few years will be the most exciting period in the company's history." Despite strong underlying performance in AI-driven user engagement, advertising efficiency, and user growth momentum, Meta's third-quarter report received mixed or even negative reviews. The stock price plummeted by 11.33% the following day, closing at $666.47, primarily due to a one-time tax impact distorting the Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) data, leading to a guidance adjustment for annual capital expenditures (capex) to $70 billion to $72 billion (driven by AI infrastructure) and the expectation that expenses for supporting continued AI investment in 2026 will grow faster.