Guotai Haitong: Rapid development of commercial aerospace will benefit space-based solar power greatly.

Guotai Haitong released a research report stating that CECEP Solar Energy is the only reliable energy source in commercial aerospace, with its radiation intensity about 5-10 times that of ground photovoltaics, resulting in a doubling of electricity generation. Currently, overseas companies such as SpaceX have a cost advantage in rocket launches, leading to the development of commercial scenarios such as low-orbit satellite internet. In the future, commercial models such as space data centers are expected to be vigorously developed, with domestic manufacturers playing an important role in energy supply for space data centers due to cost and technological advantages in technologies such as crystalline silicon and perovskite. Key points from Guotai Haitong: Development opportunities Currently, gallium arsenide is the mainstream route for space energy, while the costs and efficiency of crystalline silicon and perovskite technologies are constantly improving. The demand potential for future space data centers is large, while the cost and supply of gallium arsenide are somewhat constrained. Companies have begun exploring the use of stacked structures of crystalline silicon and perovskite, with some crystalline silicon companies already successful in shipping. Technological roadmap The firm believes that if the development of commercial scenarios such as space data centers, economics will be an important factor, with perovskite and crystalline silicon having the opportunity to succeed due to cost advantages. According to Starcloud's white paper, energy costs are the biggest variable cost for space data centers. According to the firm's calculations, crystalline silicon components have the most mature supply and clear cost advantages in manufacturing, while perovskite components can significantly reduce launch costs due to their advantage in quality over power. Market outlook Elon Musk has stated that he aims to deploy 100GW of AI computational power in space annually. If Musk's target is achieved, there will be an explosive increase in satellite demand. The firm assumes that the efficiency of perovskite stacked batteries reaches 30%, with the solar wing area of satellites reaching 350 square meters. Taking into account the higher radiation intensity of AM0 compared to the ground, when the annual installation scale of space data centers reaches Musk's goal of 100GW, it will result in an incremental demand of 680,000 satellites per year. Currently, there are only over 10,000 satellites in orbit worldwide, so space computing power will bring significant elasticity. Risk warnings: Industry development slower than expected; technological changes; policy risks; fluctuations in raw material prices; errors in calculations.