The Trump administration is considering a "total blockade" of Cuban oil, which could impact global shipping and oil prices.

According to three sources, the government of U.S. President Donald Trump is considering implementing a comprehensive oil import blockade against Cuba. This measure, as part of a potential new strategy, aims to completely cut off all crude oil and petroleum product imports to force a change in leadership in this Caribbean country. It is understood that this strategic concept is an extension of further high-pressure geopolitics in the Latin American region following U.S. military actions in Venezuela and the removal of Maduro. Previously, Cuba's long-standing reliance on Venezuelan oil supply has almost been interrupted due to U.S. blockade of Venezuelan airways, and the Trump government intends to force the Cuban government to reach a political compromise on the brink of economic collapse or facilitate a change of regime by cutting off Cuba's last energy lifeline. Although no decision has been made yet, some critics of the Cuban government within the Trump administration have been seeking to take this measure, with the support of Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The White House did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Recently, President Trump has repeatedly pressured the Cuban leadership through social media, warning that Cuba is in an "extremely dire situation with zero oil and zero funds," and hinting at taking stronger measures to prevent Cuba from obtaining alternative energy from sources like Mexico. Government hawks led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio are strong advocates of this plan, believing that a naval blockade is a key link in implementing the Helms-Burton Act and strengthening the "energy dominance" strategy. Earlier this month, after the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicols Maduro on January 3rd, Trump vowed to prevent long-time supporters such as Venezuela from shipping oil and funds to Cuba. Analysts say that this measure could have a disastrous impact on Cuba's already struggling fuel supply, power grid, and economy. With the successful overthrow of Maduro and control of the country's oil, Trump has become more emboldened, threatening action against Cuba and Colombia. He suggested that Cuba should reach an agreement with Washington to increase pressure on this long-standing U.S. enemy, sparking a tough response from the Cuban Communist Party leadership. On the regional diplomatic level, the blockade is expected to have a strong deterrent effect on neighboring countries and related commodity trade. The Mexican government, which previously provided humanitarian oil aid to Cuba, is currently facing harsh scrutiny and sanctions threats from the U.S., putting Mexico in a dilemma between maintaining diplomatic principles with Cuba and avoiding U.S. economic retaliation. The global shipping market and energy traders are closely monitoring the situation in Cuban waters, as the formal implementation of a naval blockade would signal the most serious escalation in regional tensions since the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962. This not only will completely reshape the trade risk assessment in the Caribbean region but may also trigger cascading legal and logistical shocks in the international energy supply chain.