A wave of risk aversion sweeps the market, with silver rising over $103 to a record high. Why is the "digital gold" Bitcoin price not moving?

Silver prices on Friday broke through $103 per ounce, hitting a historical high. This upward trend has been going on for several months and accelerated significantly in January 2026. Silver has now surpassed gold, becoming one of the strongest performing assets in the current macro environment, triggering a reassessment of the flow of safe-haven funds in the market. In contrast to silver's strength, Bitcoin has not followed the same upward trajectory, at least at this stage, it is still relatively lagging behind. This differentiation has brought attention to a key question in the crypto market - what does silver's breakthrough mean for the next possible direction of Bitcoin? Market participants point out that the rise in silver is not purely driven by speculation, but rather reflects a systemic reallocation of global capital in the context of increasing uncertainty. In the past few months, especially since January, investors have significantly increased their allocation to defensive assets. Behind this are factors such as escalating geopolitical tensions, renewed trade disputes, concerns about fiscal sustainability in Europe and the US, and the fragmentation of the global trade landscape, which have led to an increase in risk. In this environment, funds tend to flow first to traditional hard assets like gold and silver, and silver hitting a historical high is a concentrated reflection of this safe-haven logic. Meanwhile, expectations of a decline in real interest rates in the US have provided important support for precious metals. Traders are generally betting that the Federal Reserve will start multiple rate cuts in the second half of 2026, pushing down real yields and weakening the trend of the US dollar. As silver itself does not generate interest income, a decrease in real interest rates means a lower opportunity cost of holding silver, and a weaker dollar makes dollar-denominated precious metals more attractive to foreign buyers, becoming one of the core drivers of the rapid surge in silver momentum in January. Supply-demand structural factors have further amplified the rise in silver prices. Different from the relatively abundant supply system of gold, the silver market has been in a structural shortage state for the past few years and has seen a continuous supply gap. Since most silver production comes as a by-product of other metal mining, the supply elasticity is limited and it is difficult to respond quickly to upward price movements. In addition, the US recently classified silver as a critical mineral resource, leading to strategic hoarding and tightening inventory. As demand rises, the available supply has not been able to keep up, driving silver prices to accelerate. Silver also has unique industrial properties, making it not only a safe-haven asset but also a strategic commodity. With the global energy transition progressing, demand for silver in CECEP Solar Energy's solar panels, electric vehicles, grid infrastructure, data centers, and advanced electronic devices continues to grow. This dual positioning of being a "safe haven + industrial necessity" further enhances silver's attractiveness in the context of becoming a global focus on energy security and infrastructure resilience. In contrast, although Bitcoin also has some macro bullish factors, it often lags behind in periods of rising risks. The market increasingly sees it as "digital gold," but in pressure environments, Bitcoin is still more likely to be classified as a risky asset. When uncertainty rises, funds tend to first flow to traditional safe-haven assets, with gold and silver taking in the first wave of defensive capital, while Bitcoin often enters a consolidation phase, as investors prefer to reduce risk exposure. Historical experience shows that Bitcoin's rally usually occurs after the risk sentiment shifts from "panic safe-haven" to "concerns about currency depreciation and liquidity expansion." The market in January 2026 seems to be in the first stage of the cycle, where funds are prioritizing the most traditional and stable safe-haven tools, while Bitcoin's trend often needs several weeks or even months of lag. Analysts believe that silver hitting a historical high is not an immediate bullish signal for Bitcoin, but it has important forward-looking significance. If Bitcoin is only being driven by the same forces as silver, then funds may continue to prefer precious metals over high-volatility assets, and Bitcoin may remain in a range-bound consolidation, even possibly testing key support areas. However, looking at past cycles, the continued strength of silver and gold often pave the way for the subsequent market movement of Bitcoin. As the safe-haven narrative evolves into concerns about fiscal deficits, declining purchasing power of currency, and further liquidity expansion, Bitcoin's attributes as a currency hedge tool may become more prominent, and it may see a window for further gains. Key triggering factors that the market is currently focusing on include the Federal Reserve actually starting rate cuts rather than just speculation; sustained weakness in the US dollar; and further escalation of fiscal pressures, leading to Bitcoin being redefined from a risky asset to a currency hedge tool. While silver hitting a historical high may indicate that these conditions are gradually forming, Bitcoin has not yet fully priced in these factors.