ASML Holding NV ADR (ASML.US) takes "throttling" to the extreme! When the AI infrastructure frenzy collides with the storage super cycle, the "pinnacle of human technology" rides the main wave.

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17:26 22/01/2026
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GMT Eight
UBS predicts that the semiconductor equipment sector is entering a new round of "super upcycle," emphasizing that the semiconductor investment chain driven by the current AI infrastructure frenzy, including "computing power-storage-advanced chip manufacturing," determines that the capital expenditure, or capex, stickiness of semiconductor equipment is stronger than in any previous cycle.
UBS Group AG, an international bank, recently released a research report stating that after experiencing strong gains since 2026, the stock price of ASML Holding NV ADR, a lithography machine giant based in the Netherlands, still has a very broad bullish uptrend space. The UBS Group AG analysis team maintains a "buy" rating on ASML Holding NV ADR and has significantly raised the target stock price for the next 12 months from 1030 euros to 1400 euros, based on stronger capital expenditure, expansion of advanced process logic chip production capacity, expansion of high-performance storage chip production capacity, more optimistic revenue expectations for the Chinese market, and a significant increase in ASML Holding NV ADR's core performance growth expectations for 2026 and 2027. In the European stock market, as of the close of trading on Wednesday, ASML Holding NV ADR closed at 1154 euros, having risen by 25% since 2026 amid a strong semiconductor equipment spending expectation driven by the AI computing infrastructure construction boom and the "storage chip super cycle" backdrop. Major investment institutions such as UBS Group AG, Citigroup, and KeyBanc believe that a new uptrend in the stock price of ASML Holding NV ADR has already begun. In the US stock market, ASML Holding NV ADR US ADR (ASML.US) has also experienced strong gains since 2026, reaching new historical highs. On January 2nd alone, the stock price rose by over 8%, with a cumulative increase of 27% since the beginning of the year, and a current market value of $527 billion. The overall trend of the US semiconductor equipment sector has been extremely strong since the beginning of the year, with Lam Research Corporation (LRCX.US) and Applied Materials Inc (AMAT.US) stocks both reaching new highs. These three major semiconductor equipment giants have significantly outperformed the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq 100 Index. KeyBanc Capital Markets and Citigroup, two top Wall Street investment institutions, have recently released research reports stating that the global semiconductor industry is expected to experience a more robust demand year. Under the backdrop of the global AI computing infrastructure construction boom and the "storage chip super cycle," semiconductor equipment manufacturers including ASML Holding NV ADR, Lam Research Corporation, and Applied Materials will benefit greatly as they support the expansion of AI chips and DRAM/NAND storage chip capabilities, as well as the production of high-end servers from companies like Intel and AMD. As the global AI infrastructure construction boom and storage chip super cycle sweep across the globe, ASML Holding NV ADR can be considered one of the biggest winners. Recent developments related to the demand for AI chips and the expansion of production capacity have been positive for the semiconductor equipment industry. With the increasing construction of global AI data centers by tech giants such as Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta, there is a growing demand for advanced logic nodes and high-performance storage chips. This trend bodes well for the long-term bullish logic of the semiconductor equipment sector. Citigroup recently published a research report emphasizing that the semiconductor equipment sector is one of the biggest winners under the AI computing and storage demand. The report predicts that the global semiconductor equipment sector will enter a "Phase 2 bull market cycle," meaning that after the super bull market of 2024-25, a new bullish trajectory is expected. The report suggests that the primary investment strategy for chip stocks in 2026 should focus on the semiconductor equipment sector, particularly on ASML Holding NV ADR, Lam Research Corporation, and Applied Materials. ASML Holding NV ADR's EUV lithography machines, being the only ones capable of manufacturing them, are crucial for advancing processes from 7nm to the 3nm advanced processes adopted by companies like NVIDIA and Apple. The High NA EUV machines are designed to push geometric dimensions to 2nm and below, resulting in stronger performance. For Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR, Intel Corporation, and Samsung Electronics, which are developing 2nm and below node manufacturing technologies, ASML Holding NV ADR's new High-NA EUV lithography machines are essential. The High-NA, with its 0.55 NA and non-unity optical lithography, brings new boundaries in resolution, mask, and process integration, making it a powerful tool for accelerating advanced node production and improving line width and overlay control. UBS Group AG analysts emphasized in their report that ASML Holding NV ADR's EUV lithography machines, amid the unprecedented global AI boom since 2023, are essential for major chip manufacturers like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR and Samsung Electronics to produce AI chips for cutting-edge applications like ChatGPT and Claude. The machines are also necessary for storage giants like SK Hynix and Micron Technology to build HBM storage systems and data center enterprise-grade SSDs, essential components under the current potential "storage super cycle" backdrop until 2027. As chip production capacity expansion kicks off, UBS Group AG raises performance outlook and target stock price for ASML Holding NV ADR. Even after a significant price increase, UBS Group AG maintains a "buy" rating on ASML Holding NV ADR stock and has raised the 12-month target price to 1400 euros (previously 1030 euros), with a most optimistic target price of 1650 euros. They have significantly raised revenue and profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027. UBS Group AG believes that ASML Holding NV ADR's fourth-quarter 2025 performance and future lithography machine orders/performance guidance are expected to exceed market expectations, with a likely Q4 lithography machine order estimate of up to 9 billion euros, far exceeding the previous quarter's 5.4 billion euros, indicating strong medium-term bullish momentum to support ASML Holding NV ADR's valuation expansion. UBS Group AG's core framework for the semiconductor equipment sector is based on strong capital expenditures resonating from advanced logic chip and storage chip demands, which makes the equipment cycle more "structural" rather than short-term. ASML Holding NV ADR stands out due to the scarcity and iteration of its EUV lithography technology in an upturn, giving it stronger bargaining power and order visibility. UBS Group AG links the profit upgrade of ASML Holding NV ADR directly with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR's 2026 capital expenditure guidance of 52 to 56 billion US dollars (implying a year-on-year increase of 28% to 37%), as well as with the assumption of a rebound in storage capex. DRAM/NAND memory chip demand remains strong, with prices of memory products like DDR4, DDR5, and enterprise-grade SSDs witnessing significant expansion due to the growing importance of storage chips for AI training/inference systems driven by the AI computing wave. The global AI computing demand is experiencing exponential growth, with supply lagging behind demand intensity. This was evident in the exceptional performance data announced by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR on Thursday, with gross profit margins exceeding 60% in the fourth quarter, net profit significantly exceeding expectations, and an expected revenue growth rate of nearly 30% in 2026. Additionally, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR management has significantly raised the revenue compound annual growth rate forecast for chip outsourcing businesses related to AI from the "40% mid-range" to the "50% mid-high-range." The strong performance and future guidance of this global giant drove a collective surge in chip stocks on Thursday, particularly in storage chips and semiconductor equipment, as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR's capital expenditure expansion is mainly directed towards purchasing various high-end semiconductor equipment. UBS Group AG predicts that the semiconductor equipment sector is entering a new "super-cycle" uptrend, emphasizing that the chain of investments in semiconductors driven by the AI infrastructure boom - computing power, storage, advanced chip manufacturing - determines that semiconductor equipment capex is stickier than in any previous period. The increasing complexity of chip manufacturing processes, with more advanced process steps per wafer, makes equipment demand more sustainable and visible. UBS Group AG has significantly raised its revenue growth expectations for ASML Holding NV ADR from a previous estimate of 14% to 23% in 2026, and from 9% to 14% in 2027. They anticipate that the total revenue for ASML Holding NV ADR in the fourth quarter of 2025 will be approximately 9.747 billion euros, with a strong growth of 23% to 40.149 billion euros in 2026, and 14% to 45.889 billion euros in 2027. In terms of EPS (earnings per share), UBS Group AG forecasts that the profit indicator for 2026 could reach 33.83 euros (a significant increase of 26% over market expectations) and 41.79 euros for 2027 (a 25% increase over market expectations). Under the most optimistic EPS expectations (47.5 euros in 2027), UBS Group AG predicts that ASML Holding NV ADR's stock price could reach 1650 euros.