Still need to wait at least one more month! The US Supreme Court once again did not make a ruling on Trump's tariffs.

The U.S. Supreme Court is breaking expectations for a swift repeal of President Trump's tariffs. On Tuesday local time, the U.S. Supreme Court has still not ruled on President Trump's tariffs. Earlier on January 9th, the U.S. Supreme Court stated that they would not rule on the Trump administration's tariffs that day, sparking speculation that a decision might be announced. Last Wednesday, January 14th, the Supreme Court's ruling also did not result in any decision. As a result, the market was closely watching for a ruling from the Supreme Court on Tuesday, but one has yet to be made. At the moment the news broke, the S&P dropped 1.5%, the Dow fell 744 points, or 1.5%, the Nasdaq dropped 416 points, or 1.8%, and the semiconductor index dropped 0.7%. On Tuesday, the justices addressed three low-profile cases, indicating that, according to the Supreme Court's usual practice of "announcing all debated cases' rulings in court collectively," a decision is unlikely to be made in the next month at least. The justices will begin a four-week recess next week, and before that, the court has not ruled on most of the legal challenges facing Trump's tariffs over the past year. The Supreme Court will not schedule any more hearings until February 20th, after a hearing on Wednesday regarding Trump's attempt to dismiss Federal Reserve Board member Lisa Cook. This means that the controversial Trump tariff measures will continue to be in effect. According to U.S. federal government data, these tariffs cost importers over $16 billion per month. Analysts predict that at the current collection rate, tariffs collected under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) at the center of this case will exceed $170 billion by February 20th. The Supreme Court expedited the oral arguments on the tariff case on November 5th and set a timetable, leading some observers to predict that a decision might happen within weeks rather than the usual months. In those oral arguments on November 5th, the Supreme Court expressed doubts about whether Trump has the authority to impose these tariffs under a 1977 law, which grants the president special powers during emergencies. If the ruling is unfavorable to Trump, it may open the door to refunds of over $130 billion in tariffs. Currently, the Trump administration is appealing lower court rulings. Earlier, lower courts ruled that Trump exceeded his statutory authority in implementing tariffs that affected almost all foreign trade partners. If the ruling is unfavorable to Trump, it will be his most significant legal setback since returning to the White House. If Trump loses, it may also weaken his bargaining chips in threatening to impose more tariffs on European countries resisting his takeover of Greenland. Trump has not specified the legal authority he would use to implement these tariffs. Last Friday at a White House event, Trump said: "I am the tariff king, and I hope we win the lawsuit at the Supreme Court. If we don't win, it will be a disgrace for our country." The White House stated that if these tariffs are invalidated, they will quickly use other legal means as substitutes, but Trump stated on Tuesday that these alternatives are not ideal. "I don't want to scare you, but it will be much more troublesome. It's not as good as now, and not in favor of national security. We have a perfect system now." Complexity of refunds The longer the Supreme Court takes to review, the more complex the issue of refunds becomes. According to court records, by mid-January, businesses had submitted more than 1,500 precautionary claims to the U.S. Court of International Trade. This is just a small portion of the hundreds of thousands of importers who have paid disputed tariffs in the past year. The New York-based International Trade Court has quietly prepared for a potential refund phase and urged the government to explain its position. In December, the Court rejected companies' request to suspend the "liquidation" process which finalizes the amount of tariffs before the Supreme Court's ruling. The Court believes the government's statement that this procedure will not hinder refunds. Earlier this month, the U.S. Department of Justice informed the judge that they would not oppose the International Trade Court's authority to order Customs to recalculate tariffs and refund payments, provided that those tariffs were imposed under the 1977 Emergency Powers Act. However, the government also retained the right to object to specific appeals, which means new legal battles may arise in the future over who is eligible for refunds. Trade lawyers also point out that if the Supreme Court remains silent on this issue, it is still unclear whether the government will acknowledge the need for extensive refunds. Timing of the ruling Although the Supreme Court could make a decision before February 20th, this would require deviating from its usual procedure. In recent years, the justices have occasionally issued rulings in writing without appearing in court, but this usually occurs in special circumstances with urgent deadlines. For example, in 2024, the Court ruled that Trump could appear on the presidential ballot in Colorado the day before the primary elections, in written form. In contrast, the tariff case does not have a similar hard deadline, although the Court's expedited review had briefly raised expectations for a swift decision. The Court could also hold a special session to announce the tariff ruling, but this is extremely rare. The U.S. Supreme Court is scheduled to end this term in late June or early July, when the last batch of rulings for this term will be announced. This article is translated from "Wall Street View," written by He Hao; GMTEight editor: Xu Wenqiang.