China’s Birthrate Falls to Record Low as Pro-Natalist Policies Lose Impact

China recorded its lowest birthrate on record last year, a stark sign that policy efforts to encourage larger families are failing to reverse a shrinking and aging population. Births fell to 5.6 per 1,000 people in 2025, down from 6.4 previously, according to data compiled by Wind Information dating back to the 1950s.

In absolute terms, about 7.9 million babies were born in 2025, sharply fewer than the 9.5 million a year earlier, official statistics showed. The decline came despite a broadening of incentives, including cash rewards, tax breaks for families with young children, and an extension of maternity leave to 158 days, up from 98 days in 2024.

The slide continues a long-running trend. Although China began easing its one-child policy nearly a decade ago, births have kept falling—aside from a brief uptick in 2024, when the birthrate rose to 6.77 per 1,000. That increase was widely linked to the Year of the Dragon, traditionally seen as an auspicious time to have children.

“The pace of the decline is striking, particularly in the absence of major shocks,” said Yue Su, principal economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit. She noted that the boost from fertility incentives has faded as young people delay marriage and childbearing amid economic pressures and intense workplace competition.

The demographic headwinds are intensifying. The share of the population aged 60 and above rose to 23% in 2025, up from 22% the year before. Overall population fell for a fourth consecutive year, declining by 3.4 million to 1.405 billion, according to the statistics bureau.

Economists warn the implications are far-reaching. Fewer births today point to a smaller future workforce, increasing the burden on a rapidly growing retiree population and straining the pension system. That dynamic could require higher social security contributions, squeezing disposable income for younger workers and weighing on consumption.

“A shrinking population implies a smaller consumer base in the future, increasing the risk of wider supply-demand imbalances,” Su said, calling for a more forceful and comprehensive fertility policy response.

The challenge is also evident in fertility metrics. World Bank data show China’s fertility rate—births per woman—fell to 1.0 in 2023, the latest available reading, well below the global average of 2.2.

Together, the figures suggest that incremental incentives are no longer sufficient, and that reversing China’s demographic decline may require deeper structural changes to housing, childcare, employment and social support systems.