CRIC: Mainland buyers' ownership in Hong Kong is expected to increase by 20% by 2025, with a potential breakthrough of 15,000 transactions this year.

In 2025, the Hong Kong property market has stopped falling and rebounded, with continued active involvement of mainland funds. According to data from Centaline Property, there were over 56,600 transactions in the Hong Kong private property market last year, with nearly 14,000 transactions registered with the buyers' names in Mandarin Pinyin, an increase of 20% compared to the previous year and higher than the 2024 figure of 11,631 transactions. It is expected that in 2026, the number of mainland buyers entering the market may exceed 15,000, driven by the improving global economy, interest rate cuts stimulating demand, decreasing inventory, and the continued "Northbound" effect. In terms of investment amount, Mandarin Pinyin buyers collectively invested over HK$140 billion in 2025, reaching HK$141 billion, an increase of over 8% compared to the previous year, and breaking the HK$100 billion mark for the second consecutive year. Both in terms of transaction volume and amount, they reached historical highs, marking three consecutive years of growth in both volume and price. In the primary market, Mandarin Pinyin buyers contributed over half of the funds, investing a total of HK$78.9 billion throughout the year, second only to the HK$79.8 billion in 2024, which was a historical high. The number of transactions also exceeded 6,000 for the first time, reaching 6,502 transactions, an increase of 17% compared to the previous year. Compared to the low point of only 1,212 transactions and HK$18.4 billion before the cooling measures were implemented in 2022, this represents a fourfold and threefold increase. In December last year, Mandarin Pinyin buyers recorded 1,410 transactions, a 10% increase compared to the previous month, marking a new high in five months. Mainland buyers prefer new development areas, with Qianhai in particular becoming a hotspot for property investment. Among the 2,222 transactions in the area last year, Mandarin Pinyin buyers accounted for 1,169 transactions, making up 50% of the total, which is the highest proportion in Hong Kong. Five developments in the area recorded over a hundred transactions by Mandarin Pinyin buyers, including Kai Tak Bay (171 transactions), The Henley (161 transactions), The Harbour. Twin Diamond (156 transactions), Parc Botanica (131 transactions), and Wing Cheung (106 transactions). The most sought-after new development by Mandarin Pinyin buyers last year was the South Island near Wong Chuk Hang Station, which recorded 991 transactions throughout the year, with 450 transactions made by Mandarin Pinyin buyers, accounting for 45% of the total, involving HK$7.8 billion in investments with an average price of HK$17.45 million per transaction. Projects such as Oma Oma, Blue Coast, and Sea View Peak in the area are highly favored by non-local buyers. The next most popular areas for Mandarin Pinyin buyers were Sunrise City in Tseung Kwan O and Sierra Sea in Sai Kung, which recorded 391 and 282 transactions respectively. In the secondary market, Mandarin Pinyin buyers were mainly concentrated in urban areas last year, with the most activity in Wan Chai with 261 transactions, followed by North Point with 253 transactions and To Kwa Wan with 193 transactions. Chen Yongjie, Vice Chairman of Centaline Property's Asia Pacific region and President of the residential department, stated that developers actively reducing inventory and selling new properties at low prices contributed to strong trading in the primary market last year, attracting mainland buyers to enter the market at a low point. The market also saw large-scale bulk purchases, further boosting the overall atmosphere. He expects that in 2026, the number of Mandarin Pinyin buyers entering the market may exceed 15,000, reaching a new high since records began in 1995, highlighting the increasing influence of mainland buyers in the new development market.