China Securities Co., Ltd.: The domestic market of civil aviation spring transportation in 2026 is expected to release its heat ahead of schedule, with the number of passenger flights taking off and landing during the spring transportation period expected to exceed one million.
CITIC Securities predicts that the number of passenger flights during the Spring Festival travel rush will exceed one million, with 80% of airports seeing a year-on-year increase.
China Securities Co., Ltd. released a research report stating that domestic airline bookings are heating up, with ticket prices and time periods showing "double peaks". The domestic market for civil aviation during the 2026 Spring Festival travel season is releasing heat ahead of schedule. As of January 11th, TONGCHENGTRAVEL data shows that domestic flight bookings have increased by 8% compared to the same period in 2025, with the booking curve continuing to rise after the New Year holiday. International flight search volume has surged, with significant differences in destination and ticket prices. The overall growth of domestic airlines is significant, with notable differences in airline performance. Major airports are leading, with regional performance varying. It is expected that during the Spring Festival travel season, the number of passenger flights taking off and landing is expected to exceed one million, with 80% of airports achieving year-on-year growth.
The main points of China Securities Co., Ltd. are as follows:
Industry Overview
In terms of relative performance to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 indexes, the transportation sector as a whole fell during the week of January 12th to January 16th. The aviation sector decreased by 3.50% and the airport sector decreased by 4.09%.
2026 Civil Aviation Spring Festival Outlook
Integrating data from the Civil Aviation Administration, TONGCHENGTRAVEL's Spring Festival travel report, and other authoritative sources: Domestic airline bookings are increasing, with ticket prices and time periods showing "double peaks". The domestic market for civil aviation during the 2026 Spring Festival travel season is releasing heat ahead of schedule. As of January 11th, TONGCHENGTRAVEL data shows that domestic flight bookings have increased by 8% compared to the same period in 2025, with the booking curve continuing to rise after the New Year holiday. International flight search volume has surged, with significant differences in destination and ticket prices. The performance of domestic airlines as a whole is growing, with significant differences in airline performance. Specifically, airlines such as Huaxia Airlines, Western Airlines, and Tibet Airlines have shown leading increases in capacity. Major airports are leading, with regional performance varying. It is expected that during the Spring Festival travel season, the number of passenger flights taking off and landing will exceed one million, with 80% of airports achieving year-on-year growth.
JD Aviation accelerates the expansion of its own aircraft fleet
JD Aviation has added "airborne capacity" by empowering its logistics with Boeing and Airbus aircraft. The Boeing 737 narrow-body aircraft (22.7 tons payload) will connect key domestic hubs in the Yangtze River Delta to the northwest, with an industry-leading utilization rate of 6.10 hours, covering next-day deliveries from core cities to third and fourth-tier cities and specialty production areas. The Airbus A330 wide-body aircraft (61 tons payload) will break through intercontinental capacity bottlenecks. The expansion of JD Aviation's fleet reinforces JD LOGISTICS' "mainline-warehousing-endpoint" closed-loop system: the Nantong base will handle overflow from the Shanghai hub, in conjunction with nodes in Wuhu, Shenzhen, and other areas, deeply integrating air transport with overseas warehousing and distribution networks.
Risk Analysis
The risk of a significant depreciation of the Chinese yuan exchange rate; International routes opening at a slower pace than expected; A significant increase in fuel costs.
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