Tariff threats and Greenland trade are heating up, with market predictions betting probabilities have surpassed 40%.

President Trump threatens to acquire Greenland, and as tensions escalate, the betting heat on market predictions continues to rise. Data shows that traders are still cautious about the possibility of the U.S. obtaining at least some territory in Greenland, but the related betting probabilities have been steadily climbing throughout the month of January. On January 17th local time, Trump announced on social media that starting from February 1st, a 10% tariff will be imposed on goods imported from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland. He also stated that the tariff rate will increase to 25% starting from June 1st, until an agreement is reached for the U.S. to "completely and thoroughly purchase Greenland." The latest data from leading prediction platform Kalshi show that the implied probability of the U.S. obtaining any part of Greenland's territory by January 21, 2029 is close to 42%, a significant increase from 26% in early December last year. If we shorten the observation window, the Polymarket platform shows that the market pricing reflects a 23% probability of the U.S. acquiring part of Greenland's territory by 2026, with a 11% probability of directly taking military invasion actions. Contracts trading on another platform, PredictIt, indicate that the market believes there is a 33% chance of the U.S. purchasing part of Greenland's territory by 2026, while the likelihood of acquiring the entire territory is only 10%. Following President Trump's threat to impose tariffs on eight European countries that oppose his takeover of Greenland, market risk sentiment has been under pressure. U.S. and European stock index futures fell together - the Euro Stoxx 50 index futures plummeted by 1.2% on Monday morning, while S&P 500 index futures dropped by 0.8%. Meanwhile, as traders turn to safe-haven assets, the prices of gold and silver have both surged to historic highs.