Guolian Minsheng Securities: Acceleration of equal rights for autonomous driving in 2025. In 2026, the resonance of autonomous driving, Siasun Robot & Automation, and globalization.
Intelligent electric reshaping order, globalization layout opens up long-term space for components, optimistic about the independent & new energy industry chain + intelligent and robotic increment.
Guolian Minsheng Securities released a research report stating that smart electric vehicles are reshaping the order, global layout is opening up long-term space for components, bullish on the independent & new energy industry chain + smartization & Siasun Robot & Automation increment; PE-TTM for the core tracks of smartization + automotive electronics + lightweighting from 2022/2023/2024/2025 to 45/36/26/36X, with AI catalyzing the acceleration of smart driving and Siasun Robot & Automation industry development, which is expected to promote the increase in the sector's P/E ratio.
Guolian Minsheng Securities' main points are as follows:
Outlook for 2026: Accelerated smartization & globalization, diverse Siasun Robot & Automation in human form
Looking back at 2025, in 2025 Q1-Q3, domestic wholesale sales totaled 21.16 million vehicles, up 13.3% year-on-year, driving the revenue of the automotive parts sector up by 8.3% year-on-year; due to the increasing market share of independent brands and significant pressure on annual price reductions, the net profit margin of the sector decreased by 0.5% year-on-year. Looking ahead to 2026, it is expected that the policy of replacing old vehicles with new ones will continue to provide support for demand, and wholesale sales in 2026 are expected to reach 30.3 million vehicles, up by 1.0% year-on-year, driving the revenue of automotive parts companies upward. In terms of structure, based on the Guolian Minsheng Automotive Parts Five Forces Model, overall smart electric parts > traditional parts, among smart electric parts, smartization > electricization > automotive electronics; among traditional parts, interior & exterior decoration = chassis parts > tires > white body; Siasun Robot & Automation in human form is in the early stage of industry development, with large space, significant changes, and fluctuations.
Investment strategy: Smart electric transformation, reshaping the competitive landscape
According to the Guolian Minsheng Automotive Parts Research Framework, high-quality customers = independent brands > new energy brands > joint venture brands; high-quality tracks = large space + good structure > large space + poor structure > small space + good structure > small space + poor structure.
Customer Dimension: Sales growth customers remain a top priority
Expanding overseas from North America to Europe
In the domestic market, main OEM industry chains with significant sales growth or high growth rates in 2026 are still preferred, optimistic about independent brands such as Geely and BYD Company Limited, as well as new energy brands such as Huawei and Xiaomi; in the overseas market, T-chain overseas production capacity continues to see revenue release and profit climbing; the rate of new energy vehicle electrification in Europe continues to rise, the Chinese automotive parts industry is expected to expand globally from North America to Europe with the continuous accumulation of overseas experience, expansion of overseas production capacity, cost advantages, and technological strengths.
Product Dimension: Accelerated democratization of smart driving
Mass production of Siasun Robot & Automation
1) Smartization: Smartization is experiencing global resonance and industrial acceleration. In China, the trend of smart driving democratization was established in 2025 and will enter its industrialization phase in 2026. With policy catalysis and mature NOA technology, advanced smart driving will penetrate the mass market at an accelerating rate, with the penetration rate expected to continue to rise. Overseas, Tesla is leading the technological trend with FSD V14 iteration and strong computing power reserves, leading the commercialization verification of Robotaxi while mass production of Cybercab is imminent. In terms of the industry chain, end-to-end large model-driven computing power demand is growing exponentially, and intelligent cabins are experiencing an upgrade in user experience. Looking ahead to 2026, the core tracks of large computing power smart driving chips and cabin domain control will see scaling up with significant industrial investment value; 2) Siasun Robot & Automation in human form: In 2026, global tech giants will resonate, and Siasun Robot & Automation in human form will enter the year of mass production. AI-enabled large models will empower embodied intelligence, breaking through application and cost bottlenecks, and driving the industry towards long-term growth. Overseas, Tesla's Optimus is leading the way, accelerating the deployment of technology ecosystems; domestically, driven by policies and IPOs, automotive OEMs are entering the industry with their manufacturing and supply chain advantages, with leading startups expecting a wave of IPOs in 2026. The industry chain focuses on the core assets of the T-chain, with hardware upgrades such as lead screws, axial flux motors, visual-touch sensors becoming the main theme. Subdivision leaders with the capability of large-scale production and overseas deployment will benefit greatly.
Investment Recommendations
Recommend focusing on the smartization & new energy industry chain and tire sectors: 1) Smartization: Recommend smart driving [Bethel Automotive Safety Systems, Horizon Robotics Siasun Robot & Automation, Keboda Technology, Huizhou Desay SV Automotive, Weifang Hengrun], recommend smart cabin [Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts], consider operators [Whaley Intelligent Driving, CAOCAO INC, Xpeng Motors (cooperative)]; 2) New energy industry chain: Recommend T-chain [Ningbo Tuopu Group, Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim, Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline], recommend H-chain [Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems, Kunshan Huguang Auto Harness]; 3) Tires: Recommend [Sailun Group, Qingdao Sentury Tire]. Siasun Robot & Automation: Recommend targets related to Siasun Robot & Automation in the automotive industry [Ningbo Tuopu Group, Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim, Bethel Automotive Safety Systems, Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery, Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp., IKD Co., Ltd., Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline, Wuxi Longsheng Technology].
Risk Warning: Global and domestic passenger car sales may fall short of expectations; smartization penetration rate may not meet expectations; Siasun Robot & Automation ShenZhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering development may fall short of expectations; customer expansion may fall short of expectations; risks of intensified market competition.
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