Overnight US stocks | The three major stock indices recorded declines this week, and spot gold fell below the 4600 US dollar mark.

On Friday, the three major indices fell. In a speech at the White House on Friday, US President Trump expressed his preference for Kevin Hassett, the Chairman of the National Economic Council, to remain in his current position, and hinted that Hassett might not be nominated as the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve. [US Stocks] At the close, the Dow Jones fell 83.11 points, or 0.17%, to 49359.33 points; the Nasdaq fell 14.63 points, or 0.06%, to 23515.39 points; the S&P 500 fell 4.46 points, or 0.06%, to 6940.01 points. This week, all three major US stock indices recorded declines, with the Dow dropping by 0.29%, the S&P 500 falling by 0.38%, and the Nasdaq dropping by 0.66%. Novo Nordisk A/S Sponsored ADR Class B (NVO.US) rose by 9%, Micron Technology, Inc. (MU.US) rose by 7.7%, Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD.US) rose by 1.7%, and Coeur Mining, Inc. (CDE.US) rose by 6.4%. The Nasdaq China Dragon Index fell by 1.15%. Alibaba Group Holding Limited Sponsored ADR (BABA.US) fell by 3%, JD.com, Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A (JD.US), Li Auto, Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A (LI.US) fell by over 1%, PDD Holdings Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A (PDD.US) fell by 0.6%, NetEase Inc Sponsored ADR (NTES.US) rose by 1.3%, and NIO Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A (NIO.US) rose by 1.4%. [European Stocks] The German DAX30 index fell by 87.88 points, or 0.35%, to 25286.63 points; the UK FTSE 100 index fell by 8.89 points, or 0.09%, to 10230.05 points; the French CAC40 index fell by 54.18 points, or 0.65%, to 8258.94 points; the EuroStoxx 50 index fell by 14.99 points, or 0.25%, to 6026.15 points; the Spanish IBEX35 index rose by 59.93 points, or 0.34%, to 17702.63 points; and the Italian FTSE MIB index fell by 83.27 points, or 0.18%, to 45766.50 points. [Cryptocurrencies] Bitcoin remained stable at $95459.55, while Ethereum fell by 0.74% to $3293.99. [US Dollar Index] The US dollar index rose on the 16th. The US dollar index, which measures the dollar against six major currencies, rose by 0.07% to close at 99.389 in the forex market. At the end of trading in New York, 1 euro was exchanged for 1.1596 US dollars, lower than the previous trading day's 1.1614 US dollars; 1 pound was exchanged for 1.3381 US dollars, lower than the previous trading day's 1.3386 US dollars. 1 US dollar was exchanged for 158.11 yen, lower than the previous trading day's 158.54 yen; 1 US dollar was exchanged for 0.8034 Swiss francs, higher than the previous trading day's 0.8031 Swiss francs; 1 US dollar was exchanged for 1.3917 Canadian dollars, higher than the previous trading day's 1.3893 Canadian dollars; and 1 US dollar was exchanged for 9.2305 Swedish krona, higher than the previous trading day's 9.2263 Swedish krona. [Metals] Spot gold fell by 0.43%, breaking through the $4600 mark, to $4596; spot silver fell by 2.5% to $90.119. [Crude Oil] Oil prices fell by over 4%, as comments from US President Trump eased speculation in the market about a possible US strike against Iran. Brent crude oil futures fell by $2.76, or 4.15%, to $63.76 per barrel; New York Mercantile Exchange February delivery of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures fell by $2.83, or 4.56%, to $59.19 per barrel. [Macro News] Trump's dismissal of Hassett rattles the bond market and reduces expectations of rate cuts. Following Trump's suggestion to nominate someone other than Kevin Hassett to replace Powell, bond prices fell, with traders reducing expectations for two interest rate cuts in the US by 2026. The decline in US Treasury bonds pushed the two-year yield up by 5 basis points to 3.61%, the highest level since the last interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December. After Trump's comments on Hassett, short-term rate contracts indicated a decreased probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points twice this year. Meanwhile, the bond market continued to be affected by the December employment data, prompting Wall Street banks that previously predicted a rate cut at the January 28 meeting to abandon that view. Inflation economists at BTG Pactual Asset Management predicted that despite leadership changes at the Fed, the central bank would not cut rates further. John Fath, managing partner at BTG Pactual Asset Management USA, said, "The prior trade was a bet that regardless of who becomes the next Fed chair, they will be dovish. This trend has reversed in recent days." Bowman focuses on potential job loss risks, warns not to release signals of pausing rate cuts. Federal Reserve Governor Bowman stated, "The US economy has shown resilience, with wage growth consistent with the 2% inflation target. The Fed has made significant progress in lowering inflation. The potential inflation level is close to the Fed's 2% target." She expressed concerns about the fragility of the labor market, stating, "Unless demand improves, companies may start laying off workers. Growth is expected to remain 'moderate', inflation will continue to decline, and the job market will stabilize. Given the current risks, Fed policy should focus on supporting the labor market. The Fed's policy-making should be forward-looking and driven by economic forecasts." Current monetary policy is at a "moderately restrictive" level. Given the risks in the labor market, the Fed should be prepared to cut rates again. Despite these risks, the Fed should not release signals of pausing the rate cut cycle." Trump's tariff case reaches a critical juncture, decision expected on January 20. As the world awaits a ruling on President Trump's iconic tariff policy, the US Supreme Court has announced that January 20 (Tuesday) will be the next decision day, with at least one decision likely to be issued. The court did not specify which decisions are ready to be released, but stated that when the justices convene at 10:00 am Washington time (11:00 pm Beijing time), a judgment may be issued. If the tariff case ruling is not issued next week, it may be delayed for at least another month. A ruling against Trump on the tariff issue would weaken the core pillar of his economic agenda and be his biggest legal setback since returning to the White House. The focus of the controversy is the tariffs imposed on most imported goods on April 2, ranging from 10% to 50%, purportedly to address fentanyl trafficking, imposed on countries like Canada and Mexico. European Parliament to initiate motion of no confidence against European Commission. Documents released by the European Parliament on the 16th show that the Parliament will debate a motion of no confidence against the European Commission on the 19th, with a vote scheduled for the 22nd. This is another motion of no confidence brought by the European Parliament against European Commission President von der Leyen and her team, targeting the EU-Mercosur free trade agreement. The document stated that the European Commission President failed to listen to public opinion or address the urgent challenges facing the EU, including the decline of agriculture and rural areas, worsening food security, and lack of transparency. The European Commission has repeatedly overstepped its authority, directly harming European agriculture and farmers. [Stock News] Supreme Court agrees to hear appeal in glyphosate cancer case, Bayer (BAYRY.US) bets on final ruling by Supreme Court. The US Supreme Court has agreed to hear an appeal by Bayer to challenge thousands of lawsuits accusing its popular product "Roundup" weed killer of causing cancer. The Supreme Court on Friday agreed to hear Bayer's challenge to a $125 million verdict by a Missouri jury, on the grounds that some claims in the 2023 case are preempted by federal law. Bayer executives hope that a ruling by the Supreme Court will help resolve thousands of Roundup lawsuits containing claims of "failure to warn." Since acquiring Monsanto for $66 billion and inheriting a series of lawsuits that have cast a shadow over the company's stock price, the Roundup litigation has been a major headache for the German conglomerate. The company has already paid over $10 billion in verdicts and settlements related to the weed killer and its active ingredient glyphosate. Despite investors betting on a turnaround, Bayer's stock price rose by about 80% last year but remains well below pre-Monsanto acquisition levels. The German company has been dealing with the current and anticipated future volume of Roundup lawsuits. Bayer has stated that it has resolved over 130,000 cases through settlements or dismissals, and it has set aside an additional $6 billion to handle Roundup-related cases. "Two Agencies" stock prices hit hard, concerns arise over Trump's mortgage bond directive delaying privatization. The stock prices of Fannie Mae (FNMA.US) and Freddie Mac (FMCC.US) continued their downward trend for several days, as the market grew increasingly uneasy about changes in President Trump's policies and concerns that these measures could hinder the two mortgage finance giants from exiting government control. In trading on Friday, both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's common stocks fell by over 12%, hitting their lowest intraday levels since late November. Fannie Mae has fallen for the fifth consecutive trading day, while Freddie Mac has fallen for the seventh day in a row. Both stocks have fallen by over 40% from their peaks in September, but are still up by over 60% from a year ago. These two companies, which have been under Washington's control since the financial crisis, saw significant gains in 2025 due to optimistic expectations for an IPO. In August of last year, there were reports that the government was considering an IPO that could value the two companies at around $500 billion or higher, planning to raise around $30 billion by selling 5% to 15% of their shares, which fueled high market sentiment. However, recent proposals, including one requiring Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase mortgage bonds, and doubts about whether the IPO can proceed in the short term, have further dampened this optimism. Matthew Aks of Evercore ISI believes that the narrative of "IPO is dead" is gaining widespread attention, but it is not the whole truth. The strategist said, "I have heard rumors that some investors who have been in this trade for a year have made a lot of profit and are now deciding to take profits and exit. There are still paths for investors ahead, and I would describe them as paths with more potential upside, although not a complete IPO." [Major Bank Ratings] Jefferies Financial Group Inc.: Raised the target price for NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) from $250 to $275; raised the target price for Intel Corporation (INTC.US) from $40 to $45.