Silver hits a new high, BMO knocks the alarm: the relative rise of gold may be excessive.

The price of silver has recently hit consecutive record highs, driving the gold-silver ratio down to 50, the lowest level since March 2012. However, analysts at BMO Capital Markets warn that changes in supply and demand dynamics may mean that the current trend in the ratio is difficult to sustain. The bank pointed out in a research report: "Despite geopolitical uncertainty and demand as a 'safe haven' potentially further pushing down the gold-silver ratio in the short term, we predict that the excess supply of physical silver will gradually expand, which will inevitably drive up the gold-silver ratio in the coming years, continuing the long-term trend since the 1970s." The analysts further explained: "Since the end of the Bretton Woods system in the 1970s, there has been a significant causal relationship between the surplus of physical silver supply and demand and the gold-silver ratio, with periods of severe oversupply typically accompanied by a steady increase in the gold-silver ratio, and vice versa." While investment demand is the main driver of this round of silver price increases, BMO emphasizes: "The key indicator to focus on is the balance between silver consumption (industrial+jewelry+silverware) and supply (usually higher than consumption). The bank specifically highlighted the demand for silver in the field of solar energy from CECEP, believing that the amount of silver used in photovoltaics may have peaked; before solid-state batteries are commercialized, silver supply will continue to grow, leading to its underperformance compared to gold. Weaker-than-expected US weekly jobless data boosted the dollar, causing a small decline in gold futures on Thursday, but silver contracts for the near month rose after falling in most periods. Robert Yorg, an analyst at Mizuho Securities, pointed out in a report: "The stabilization of the situation in Iran did not dampen safe-haven sentiment and drag down the price of silver, and despite the US announcement that no tariffs would be imposed on key minerals including silver, silver continued to rise stubbornly." Specific market data shows that the near-month gold futures contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 0.2% to $4616.30 per ounce from the previous trading day's historical high, while the near-month silver contract has risen for five consecutive trading days, gaining 1.1% to $91.876 per ounce, highlighting the differentiated trend pattern within the precious metals sector.