ASML Holding NV ADR (ASML.US) pre-earnings report by JP Morgan: Strong performance expected in 2025 Q4 order volume, stock price likely to increase by another 20%.

The lithography machine giant ASML Holding NV ADR (ASML.US) will announce its fourth quarter 2025 results on January 28th, Eastern Time. According to a report by JP Morgan, driven by orders from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR and Samsung Electronics, it is expected that ASML Holding NV ADR's fourth quarter order amount will reach 7 billion euros, approximately 4% higher than market consensus expectations - which have been continuously raised. The bank maintains its "overweight" rating on ASML Holding NV ADR's US stocks with a target price of $1518. This target price represents an increase of about 20% from the closing price on January 14th. It is worth noting that ASML Holding NV ADR's US stocks have already risen by about 18% this year. For ASML Holding NV ADR's fourth quarter performance, JP Morgan expects quarterly revenue to be 9.503 billion euros (an increase of 2.6% year-on-year and 26.4% quarter-on-quarter), slightly lower than market consensus expectations by 0.6%, but within the company's guidance range midpoint of 9.3-9.8 billion euros. In terms of profitability, it is estimated that the gross margin for the quarter will be 51.8% (the company's guidance range is 51%-53%), in line with market consensus expectations; estimated earnings per share are 7.50 euros, also consistent with market consensus expectations. In terms of performance guidance, JP Morgan estimates that ASML Holding NV ADR's revenue will grow by about 3.2% in 2026. Although this figure may have upward potential due to shipments to Samsung Electronics, JP Morgan is not sure whether ASML Holding NV ADR will provide guidance for a 10% revenue growth in 2026 that aligns with buyer consensus expectations. JP Morgan adds that as long as fourth quarter order amounts show strength, a slightly less aggressive revenue guidance for 2026 would still be positive for the stock price. JP Morgan points out that ASML Holding NV ADR's order amount in the first three quarters of 2025 increased strongly by 26% compared to the same period last year, but it still falls short of the levels seen in 2021 and 2022. Meanwhile, the fourth quarter of 2025 will be the last quarter for ASML Holding NV ADR to report its order amount. This data will be a focal point, as the 2026 shipment volume will be affected by customers not placing orders earlier in 2025 and cleanroom delivery lead times extending, limiting semiconductor capacity expansion. JP Morgan explains that the fourth quarter is often the first quarter to receive Y+2 orders. Most of ASML Holding NV ADR's orders in the fourth quarter of 2025 will be related to shipments in 2027. Given the huge demand in the artificial intelligence market, particularly in the DRAM/HBM market, chip manufacturers are likely to place large orders for ASML Holding NV ADR devices for deliveries starting in the first quarter of 2027. Importantly, due to the extended cleanroom delivery period, chip manufacturers will face limitations in capacity expansion in 2026, so they must prepare for increased production in 2027. JP Morgan also notes that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR is a major driver of ASML Holding NV ADR's order amount and shipment volume in 2025, while Samsung Electronics, which drastically reduced its lithography machine purchases in 2025, could become the strongest DRIVE for ASML Holding NV ADR's order growth in the future. SK Hynix and Micron Technology, Inc. will also drive ASML Holding NV ADR's order growth, but in absolute terms, the order growth brought by Samsung Electronics, as it has existing cleanroom space for installing equipment, may be the most robust. JP Morgan also believes that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR will show positive performance in ordering advanced process equipment for the first half of 2027. Additionally, JP Morgan believes that ASML Holding NV ADR is the sole supplier of EUV lithography machines and with higher EUV average selling prices driving its market share in the lithography machine field to surpass the 80%-89% range. The shift towards High-NA is expected to begin in 2027, and the increased use of EUV in DRAM manufacturing will play a similar role. There have been significant changes in the storage chip industry environment in the past quarter, with a substantial increase in DRAM prices. ASML Holding NV ADR, due to its business relationships with all major storage chip companies, will be a significant beneficiary of the storage upcycle.