Shenwan Hongyuan Group: Alibaba's Flash Sale strategy upgrade injects strong demand momentum, the scale benefits of instant delivery are expected to be further highlighted.

Shenwan Hongyuan Group released a research report stating that Alibaba Group has clarified its investment strategy for Taoobao Flash Sale in 2026, with a strategic focus shift towards "striving for absolute first place". This shift is expected to inject strong demand momentum into the instant delivery industry. Under anti-monopoly supervision, competition in the instant retail sector is becoming more compliant, and is expected to drive categories towards higher-priced products from catering and tea drinks, bringing more growth space to the logistics side. In terms of targets, it is optimistic about the opportunities on the logistics side under the significant transformation on the commercial flow side, and specifically recommends SF INTRA-CITY (09699), a profitable and third-party value-significant company, and pays attention to Flashex (FLX.US). Key points from Shenwan Hongyuan Group: Upgrade of Alibaba's Flash Sale strategy has become the core incremental demand for instant delivery, and under anti-monopoly supervision, instant delivery of all categories is expected to see benign growth. Alibaba Group has clarified its investment strategy for Taoobao Flash Sale in 2026, with the strategic focus shifting towards "striving for absolute first place". On January 9th, the State Council's Anti-Monopoly Anti-Unfair Competition Committee announced that it will conduct investigations and evaluations of the market competition situation in the food delivery platform service industry based on the Anti-Monopoly Law of the People's Republic of China. Shenwan Hongyuan Group believes that competition in the instant retail sector is becoming more compliant, and is expected to drive categories towards higher-priced products from catering and tea drinks, bringing more growth space to the logistics side. High-frequency subsidies have successfully nurtured user consumption habits, and an increase in investment intensity will directly drive the growth in the scale of instant delivery orders, becoming a key source of industry demand increment. Instant delivery may trigger a new round of "arms race" for brands and businesses, with optimism for a positive cycle on the logistics end. Shenwan Hongyuan Group previously pointed out the impact of the initial demand for instant delivery on the fulfillment model of various channels for businesses. Currently, in addition to catering and tea drinks, subsidies are further expanding to department store categories, and instant delivery has become an important channel that businesses cannot ignore, even greatly disrupting some business models that originally relied on high efficiency and channel density. In addition to platform-side subsidies, proactive efforts by brand owners are expected to bring about a new round of growth, driving the acceleration of scale effects on the logistics side, forming a positive cycle. Platform competition favors third-party logistics service providers SF INTRA-CITY has significant independent third-party value, benefiting from the overflow of single orders from the food delivery war, with business growth and profit expectations looking positive. During the "Double Eleven" period, SF INTRA-CITY's daily average same-city delivery orders increased by over 50% compared to the previous year. In terms of categories, catering orders have continued to grow strongly since the "food delivery war", with drink orders increasing by over 160% year-on-year, and fast food orders increasing by over 110% year-on-year. In addition, orders for non-food categories such as supermarkets, department stores, beauty, and jewelry have seen double-digit percentage growth year-on-year. As a neutral third-party platform, during the major promotion period, SF INTRA-CITY's cross-channel order performance was outstanding: orders from platforms such as Douyin, Meituan-W, Taobao Flash Sale, JD.com, Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A, and merchant-owned platforms all saw significant growth, and the growth and profit expectations for the food delivery business in 2026 remain positive. Risk warning: Changes in e-commerce platform strategies, changes in regulatory policies, and cost increases exceeding expectations.