Open Securities: Optimistic about the business value improvement of large-scale model payment closed loop, domestic manufacturers' commercialization potential is worth looking forward to.

Open Source Securities released a research report stating that on January 11th, Google announced that Gemini will connect with Walmart and Sam's Club, and Google officially released the Universal Commerce Protocol (UCP) to provide intelligent shopping capabilities for Google Search and Gemini's AI model. In addition, Ali Qianwen is also expected to achieve in-conversation shopping. The significance of closing the loop from AI chatbots to actual payment landing is significant and could potentially be a precursor to reshaping the next generation of e-commerce landscape. The potential of domestic large models after opening up payment permissions is more anticipated: 1) the integration of models and e-commerce markets, Alibaba and Byte are both model factories and e-commerce platforms; 2) domestic enterprises have a higher enthusiasm for the commercialization of AI features. The main points of Open Source Securities are as follows: The connection of Gemini with Walmart and Sam's Club is expected to empower Google in terms of business models, data barriers, and optimizing AI search. The significance of closing the loop from AI chatbots to actual payment landing is significant and could potentially be a precursor to reshaping the next generation of e-commerce landscape. For Google, in addition to further strengthening the usability and stickiness of Gemini, there are also: (1) Google through the UCP agreement, will directly transform search behavior into purchasing behavior, the future business model of e-commerce may shift from Google Shopping's "selling traffic" to a "commission" model; (2) strengthening the "shopping map" moat, Google will have access to user's real purchasing paths and repeat purchase frequencies, feeding back into recommendation algorithms; (3) the advertising business under AI search inherently faces the problem of "zero click-through rate," the landing of the payment link will directly improve this pain point. Revisiting ChatGPT's "instant checkout," the commercial potential of domestic manufacturers is worth looking forward to It should also be noted that ChatGPT introduced the "instant checkout" feature as early as September 29, 2025, running the complete shopping loop from dialogue to order placement. At that time, the first to be integrated Etsy and Shopify's stock prices surged on the same day, but subsequent sustainability did not materialize, mainly due to the following reasons: (1) There is a disconnect between North American large models and the e-commerce market, with the model leader being OpenAI and Google, while the e-commerce leader is Amazon, so the penetration of model giants into payment scenarios will naturally face resistance from Amazon (for example, Amazon has strengthened its own Rufus assistant's ability to directly checkout, and added anti-scraping functions); (2) AI search and purchasing payment are just sub-functions of OpenAI's larger Operator plan, with more market attention focused on its complex proxy capabilities (such as booking tickets, reimbursement, etc.); (3) The issues of product trustworthiness and returns/exchanges for high-value goods have not been completely resolved. Based on this, Open Source Securities believes that the potential of domestic large models after opening up payment permissions is more anticipated: 1) the integration of models with the e-commerce market, Alibaba and Byte are both model factories and e-commerce platforms; 2) domestic enterprises have a higher enthusiasm for the commercialization of AI features. Qianwen APP is expected to evolve from search selection to command delivery, bullish on Alibaba's ecological advantages Qianwen APP is expected to call Fliggy or Taobao API through an Agent, complete selection, confirmation, and payment within the dialog box, and large models are expected to evolve from chatting Siasun Robot&Automation to personal agent form, reducing user cognitive burden. Considering that Alibaba has a complete ecosystem of e-commerce, travel, local life, logistics, and payments, Qianwen is expected to be the first to achieve a transaction loop, and as the gap between AI models and algorithms continues to narrow, scene and data integration capabilities may become a leading advantage, focusing on the subsequent integration progress of Qianwen and the Alibaba ecosystem. Risk warning AI applications may not perform as expected, market competition intensifies, and there are risks of technological iteration.