A-share midday review | ChiNext Index fell by 1.02% High-popularity stocks fell, non-ferrous metal sector rose

On January 15, the three major stock indexes collectively opened lower and then briefly turned red, with intense speculation between bulls and bears. By the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.6%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.44%, and the Growth Enterprise Board Index fell by 1.02%. It is worth noting that several broad-based ETFs traded significantly higher today, with the Huatai Bairui CSI 300 ETF trading nearly 10.5 billion yuan, the SSE 50 ETF, the ChiNext ETF of E Fund, and the CSI 300 ETF of E Fund all trading over 2 billion yuan, exceeding the total trading volume of yesterday. Previously, when several broad-based ETFs, represented by the CSI 300 ETF, experienced abnormal movements, several industry experts had stated that this move could inject confidence into the market and enhance the inherent stability of the capital market. Looking at the market, the photovoltaic sector opened low but went higher, with Shenzhen Topraysolar rising for two consecutive sessions; the precious metals concept was active, with Sichuan Gold approaching its daily limit; the lithium battery concept was strong, with TFL rising by over 14% and Tonze New Energy Technology rising by over 7%; the tourism sector rebounded collectively, with UTour Group rising for two consecutive sessions; the smart driving concept rose, with Shenzhen Soling Industrial hitting its daily limit, and previously, Harbin VITI Electronics Corp and Shanghai Jin Jiang Online Network Service hitting their daily limits. On the downside, the commercial aerospace concept underwent collective adjustments, with several stocks like Jiangsu Yinhe Electronics, Guangzhou Haige Communications Group Incorporated, Tongyu Communication Inc., Luxin Venture Capital Group, Juli Sling Co., Ltd., Eastern Communications, etc., falling by their daily limits. In terms of focus stocks, affected by negative news such as the termination of restructuring, Zhejiang Sunflower Great Health opened and hit the daily limit for a 20 cm drop, with a turnover of about 250 million yuan. Looking ahead, CITIC SEC stated that although the regulatory authorities had recently cooled down the market, preventing short-term overheating risks, the overall trading and investment activity in the equity market remains at historically high levels, with core indicators such as daily trading volume and margin trading balance being better than the long-term average. Securities companies are expected to continue benefiting, with the fundamentals maintaining high profit elasticity until 2025. Looking ahead, as the pace of equity financing optimization, mergers and acquisitions, derivatives tool expansion, and wealth management transformation improves, the capital market's functionality will gradually recover and become more perfect, expanding the boundaries of securities companies' businesses and generating more diversified and stable revenues, with potential for enhanced operating quality and valuation centers. Popular sectors: 1. Active precious metals concept - Sichuan Gold was close to its daily limit, with Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Hunan Silver, Zhaojin International Gold, Shandong Gold Mining, Shanjin International Gold, and Shengda Resources following suit. Comment: In recent days, silver prices surged by over 7%, reaching a historic high of $93 per ounce; gold prices also broke their historical record to reach $4,643 per ounce. 2. Strong lithium battery concept - TFL rose by over 14%, Tonze New Energy Technology rose by over 7%, with Jiangsu HSC New Energy Materials, Do-Fluoride New Materials, Canmax Technologies, Shandong Hi-Tech Spring Material Technology, and Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology following suit. Comment: On January 15, the benchmark price for lithium carbonate (industrial grade) was 160,000.00 yuan/ton, a 36.71% increase from earlier this month at 117,033.33 yuan/ton. 3. Rebound in the tourism hotel sector - UTour Group rose for two consecutive sessions, with SSAW Hotels & Resorts Group, Shaanxi Tourism Culture Industry Holding, China Cyts Tours Holding, Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels, and BTG Hotels following suit. Comment: Recently, Ctrip received notice from the State Administration for Market Regulation to investigate its suspected monopoly behavior. 4. Rise in the smart driving concept - Shenzhen Soling Industrial hit its daily limit, with previous risers Harbin VITI Electronics Corp and Shanghai Jin Jiang Online Network Service, followed by VanJee Technology, Zhejiang Shibao, and Shenzhen Roadrover Technology also surging. Comment: On January 14, the Shanghai Municipal Economic and Information Commission, among three other departments, released the "Model Speedwise Action Plan" for Shanghai's advanced autonomous driving zone. It mentioned that by 2027, advanced autonomous driving applications in Shanghai should achieve large-scale implementation and create an internationally competitive and influential smart connected car industry cluster, establishing a leading advanced autonomous driving zone globally. Institutional perspectives: 1. CITIC SEC: Risk prevention is cautious, and the trend of slow bull equity can be expected. CITIC SEC stated that although the regulatory authorities had recently cooled down the market and prevented short-term overheating risks, the overall trading and investment activity in the equity market remains at historically high levels. Core indicators such as daily average turnover, margin balance, etc., are better than the long-term averages, and securities companies are expected to continue benefiting from this, with the fundamentals maintaining high profit elasticity until 2025. Looking ahead, as the pace of equity financing optimization, the activity of mergers and acquisitions improves, derivatives tools expand, and wealth management transformation deepens, the functionality of the capital market will gradually recover and become more perfect, expanding the boundaries of securities companies' businesses and generating more diversified and stable revenues, with potential for enhanced operating quality and valuation centers. 2. China Securities Co., Ltd.: The mid-term "stock-bond seesaw" effect further supports the A-share trend. China Securities Co., Ltd. pointed out that the global interest rate cut cycle in 2026 is entering the second half, with macro liquidity exhibiting two core characteristics of "internal and external loose resonance" and "from extraordinary to normal." The US dollar is under pressure on the exchange rate side, and the appreciation of the renminbi supports the strength of A shares. On the stock-bond reallocation front, the long-term low interest rates reshape the logic of stock-bond allocations, and the mid-term "stock-bond seesaw" effect further supports the A-share trend. In addition, the demand for residents to "transfer deposits" for reallocation may become the market's largest marginal increment. In terms of policies, in the post-real estate era, the capital market will upgrade its status and become the core hub for economic development and resource allocation, continuously optimizing the market fund ecology, laying the foundation for high-quality development of the capital market. 3. Huatai: Super-expected innovative drug BD drives the resonance of the pharmaceutical sector. Huatai research report stated that since the beginning of 2026, Hong Kong's innovative drug trading has been less than two weeks, but has already seen a good start as expected. The liquidity of Hong Kong's innovative drug sector has been significantly restored, and with the JPM Healthcare Summit kicking off this week, Chinese BD trading has continued to exceed expectations, with a significant increase compared to the same period last year. The liquidity restoration since the beginning of the year will bring a clear wave of innovative drug beta market, looking forward to breaking through the previous highs. Export-oriented CXO companies, driven by the demand for new molecules, continue to outperform expectations and are expected to resonate with innovative drugs. 4. CMSC: The potential clearance of backward capacity The profitability of the chemical industry may see marginal improvement. CMSC research report stated that since 2021, affected by the high prosperity of chemical product prices, petrochemical and chemical companies have planned more capital expenditures, initiating a new round of capacity expansion. Since 2022, with the gradual release of new capacity, coupled with the fall of crude oil prices from their highs, most chemical product prices have continued to decline, leading to a decrease in overall profitability. Since 2024, most chemical product prices have bottomed out, and the profitability of enterprises remains under pressure. With the subsequent formulation of growth stabilization programs, CMSC believes that some backward capacity may be eliminated, leading to marginal improvement in the overall supply-demand situation of the industry, thereby increasing the profitability of products.