HAITONG INT'L: The growth rate of express delivery has slowed down, and anti-insulation measures will help repair industry profitability.

HAITONG INT'L released a research report stating that the express delivery volume in the industry is expected to increase by +5% YoY in November 2025, maintaining a single-digit growth rate. During the Double Eleven shopping festival, the volume of parcels is expected to increase by +9% YoY, which is a slowdown compared to the 21% growth rate of the festival in 2024. The peak daily volume during the festival is +6.6% YoY, narrowing for the third consecutive year, reflecting a weakening marginal effect of the festival on consumption stimulation. On the other hand, the effective anti-"burnout" policies in the industry have increased the revenue per parcel for major players such as YTO Express, Yunda Express, and STO Express by 0.16/0.25/0.44 yuan respectively. It is expected that the trend of profit recovery in Q4 2025 will continue, and the sustainability of future profitability depends on the sustainability of the anti-"burnout" policies in the express delivery industry. HAITONG INT'L's main points are as follows: - The growth rate of express delivery volume in Q4 drops to single digits, while the peak volume during Double Eleven remains stable. - The industry-wide express delivery volume is expected to increase by +5% YoY in November 2025, maintaining a single-digit growth rate. The anti-"burnout" policies in the express delivery industry have effectively pushed up prices, potentially impacting the growth trend of small parcels and improving the quality of express delivery demand. - The daily volume during the Double Eleven festival is 1.18 times the normal daily volume, with the peak daily volume increasing by +6.6% YoY, narrowing for the third consecutive year, reflecting a weakening marginal effect of the festival on consumption stimulation. The effective implementation of anti-"burnout" policies has led to a slowdown in market concentration and the beginning of profit recovery for major players in the industry. In conclusion, the express delivery industry has seen positive effects from the anti-"burnout" policies, and it is recommended to pay attention to the trends in regulatory measures and competitive strategies of companies in the sector.