December non-farm payrolls will be released tonight: employment is expected to increase by a modest 73,000, and "year of stability" may become the main theme of 2026.

In December, the labor market in the United States is expected to show a moderate improvement, bringing some warmth to the new year, but overall momentum remains insufficient. This highly anticipated report will be released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday night at 9:30 PM Beijing time. Market consensus forecasts indicate that non-farm payrolls are expected to increase by 73,000 in December, with the unemployment rate expected to decrease slightly to 4.5%. If the forecast is close to actual figures, this means that job growth will be slightly higher than the monthly average increase of 55,000 in the first 11 months of 2025, and slightly better than the performance of 64,000 in early November. However, the current unemployment rate is still 0.5 percentage points higher than at the beginning of last year. Looking ahead to 2026, most economists believe that while the labor market may not be strong, it is at least stabilizing. Amy Grath, Senior Vice President of Operations at Adecco Human Resources Services, said: "The situation at the end of the year is better than at the beginning of the year. We have seen positive signs in both hiring and layoffs slowing down. As we enter 2026, the market outlook is quite optimistic. I believe this will be a 'year of stability'." Looking back at 2025, the labor market fluctuated within a narrow range for most of the time: it peaked in April with 158,000 job growth, but saw a net decrease of 105,000 in October. Grath pointed out, "We see the market as neither too cold nor too hot, but in a middle state." She continued, "2026 may continue with this cautious optimism, and while fluctuations are inevitable, the market has proven its resilience." Although surface data shows that the unemployment rate is at a historical low, some Federal Reserve policymakers are concerned that the cracks in the labor market may become more apparent this year. Officials who supported the recent three consecutive rate cuts believe that the necessity of supporting job prospects outweighs concerns about reigniting inflation. Fed officials also mentioned that there is a "systematic overestimation" of job growth, which is one of the reasons for their cautious stance. Jose Torres, Senior Economist at Winthin Securities, said that the market has been hoping for the Fed to intervene again when necessary. "Market confidence has increased this year, based on expectations that the Fed will further ease policy. This will effectively boost recruitment in more cyclical sectors." So far, job growth has been mainly concentrated in sectors benefiting from expansionary fiscal policies, especially in healthcare and government departments. Grath expects this trend to continue. In addition, she believes another trend worth noting in 2026 is "employee retention" - companies are more inclined to retain existing employees rather than lay off or aggressively recruit. "Employers place a high value on retaining employees and are motivating them through salary increases, additional bonuses, and benefits," Grath emphasized. "Employers who are doing it right are increasing investment in employee skills enhancement and retraining." It is worth mentioning that Friday's report will be the first timely released employment report since the end of the government shutdown in mid-November. Due to the data gap caused by the shutdown, some economists expect to see the first "clean" and undisturbed employment report in February.