Initial unemployment benefits cooling down and a sharp increase in productivity are framed together as the backdrop of the "soft landing" of the US economy under the AI flood.

Statistics released by the US government on Thursday showed that US labor productivity accelerated in the third quarter to its strongest pace in two years, further indicating that the efficiency-driven wave led by ChatGPT's emergence is significantly restraining inflationary pressure from the wage level. At the same time, for the week ending January 3 (including the New Year holiday), the number of initial jobless claims in the US increased by 8,000 from the previous week to 208,000 people, slightly lower than the market's general expectation of 210,000 people, and still well below the average level of initial jobless claims last year, reinforcing signs of a warming labor market. Data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday showed that non-farm labor productivity in the United States surged at an annualized rate of 4.9% in the third quarter (compared to the previous quarter), far exceeding the market's consensus expectation of 3% growth and a revised upward growth rate of 4.1% in the second quarter. With labor productivity skyrocketing to an annualized rate of 4.9% and initial claims falling to just 208,000, it highlights how the AI efficiency dividend engine of US companies is curbing wage inflation and shows moderate signs of a recruitment rebound. Returning to a historically low range for initial claims means that the "layoff end" has not worsened, which is needed for a "soft landing." The unprecedented surge in productivity at an annualized rate of 4.9% and the annualized unit labor cost decline of -1.9% (for two consecutive quarters) under the influence of the AI wave highlights a significant increase in productivity suppressing wage inflation and is conducive to continuing to reduce inflation without significantly sacrificing employment. Although the US labor market is expected to show significant slowing in 2025, the US economy still grew at its fastest pace in two years in the third quarter, a trend undoubtedly closely related to the sharp increase in US productivity. Unit labor costs the costs that businesses pay to employees to produce one unit of output unexpectedly decreased by 1.9%, following a decrease in the previous quarter. This marks the first time that unit labor costs have decreased in two consecutive quarters since 2019. The productivity report also showed that US business output in the third quarter grew by a higher-than-expected 5.4% on an annual basis, compared to 5.2% in the previous three months. The decline in employment costs highlights a subtle differentiation pattern in the US economy: the labor market has softened but not fallen into a continuous decline, while key economic growth data such as GDP, service sector PMI, and overall productivity remain robust. Additional data released on Thursday showed that for the week ending January 3 (including the New Year holiday), initial jobless claims increased by 8,000 to 208,000, while continuing claims (a measure...