Deutsche Bank is optimistic about the retail market in early 2026: a 55 billion tax refund "red envelope" is smashed into the market, and companies like Yama Fun Sports (AS.US) are rated as "buy".

Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft has resumed coverage of key stocks in the global brand, discount retail, and professional beauty sectors. The bank stated that after a strong year for the retail industry (with consumer resilience and improved pricing and profit margins), it is entering 2026 with optimism and expects the macro environment to be in a "risk preference" state, despite potential fluctuations. Analyst Christina Carte pointed out that due to favorable weather conditions and increased tax refunds, revenue trends in the first half of the year will remain stable, which is seen as a driver for same-store sales growth. In addition, the reduction of trade policy uncertainties and ongoing benefits from monetary policy are also seen as positive factors. Carte wrote in the report, "Furthermore, if the Supreme Court rules tariffs unconstitutional, it will push our covered retailers to raise their performance expectations for 2026 (we estimate that retailers currently pay an average of 20% in tariffs; if the International Emergency Economic Powers Act is overturned, a 15% general tariff rate may be implemented for 150 days, which is still lower than the current 20% level)." Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft estimates that the "Big Beautiful Act" will increase tax refunds by about $55 billion (total refunds in 2024 were $461 billion). The bank expects tax refunds to mainly benefit low- to middle-income consumers facing cost of living challenges, as well as those affected by reductions in Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and Medicaid; while affluent households with resilient spending power are expected to benefit from increased State and Local Tax (SALT) deductions. Stocks rated "Buy" by Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft include: Amphenol Corp. (AS.US), Birkenstock Inc. (BIRK.US), Ulta Beauty Inc. (ULTA.US), Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL.US), Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST.US), and The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX.US). In contrast, the bank has a more conservative view on the following stocks, giving them a "Hold" rating: Bath & Body Works Inc. (BBWI.US), Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL.US), NIKE, Inc. Class B (NKE.US), and Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU.US).