OPEC maintains stable production in December, increased production in Iraq offsets the shortfall in Venezuela.

Based on ship tracking data, information provided by officials, and a survey conducted by consulting companies Rapidan Energy Group, FGE, Kpler, and Rystad Energy, it was shown that, despite Venezuela's crude oil production falling to its lowest level in two years, increased production from countries such as Iraq offset this gap, with OPEC's overall crude oil production remaining stable in December last year. The survey data indicated that OPEC's average daily crude oil production for the month slightly exceeded 29 million barrels, remaining largely unchanged from the previous month. Due to pressure measures such as the United States' detention of oil tankers, Venezuela's daily production decreased by about 14%, dropping to 830,000 barrels. A few OPEC member countries, including Iraq, chose to increase production, completing the final round of this collective production increase plan, with the alliance planning to suspend production increases in the first quarter of this year. Against the backdrop of oversupply in the global crude oil market, OPEC+ led by Saudi Arabia plans to maintain production stability until the end of March. This week, the Trump administration detained Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro and announced the indefinite takeover of the country's oil export business, which had an impact on the international oil market. Despite Trump's claim that American oil companies would invest billions of dollars to help rebuild Venezuela's crumbling energy infrastructure, the country's energy situation remains precarious in the short term. Due to U.S. sanctions, Venezuela was forced to shut down some oil wells in the oil-rich Orinoco heavy oil belt last month. This sudden sanction poses another geopolitical challenge for OPEC+. The alliance is facing increasing pressure, not only to deal with record oversupply expectations but also to handle internal unrest in Iran, and the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has impacted the oil exports of ally Kazakhstan. London crude oil futures prices are currently hovering just above $60 per barrel, near a five-year low, putting increased financial pressure on OPEC+ member countries. Against this backdrop of uncertainty, the eight core member countries of the alliance reached a consensus again this month to maintain production freeze in the first quarter of this year, suspending the large-scale production recovery plan initiated last year. In April last year, despite ample global oil supply, Saudi Arabia and its allies announced a rapid restart of idle production capacity since 2023, shocking oil traders. Multiple OPEC representatives revealed that this move aimed to regain market share captured by competitors such as U.S. shale oil producers in recent years. The survey showed that the largest source of increased production within OPEC+ in December was Iraq, with its daily production increasing by 80,000 barrels to reach 4.37 million barrels. This production level far exceeds Iraq's quota agreed upon in the OPEC+ agreement, but official data used by the alliance shows that Iraq is still complying with production targets. Before the suspension of this round of production increases, OPEC+ had officially approved the restoration of about two-thirds of idle production capacity. The alliance has accumulated idle production capacity of 3.85 million barrels per day since 2023 and still has 1.2 million barrels per day of idle production capacity awaiting restart. Saudi Arabia and the other seven core OPEC+ member countries will hold a video conference on February 1 to discuss production policies for the following months.