The US real estate market welcomes a "red start" to the year, with large interest rates touching lows not seen since April 2023, and an increase in signings and refinancing.

The mortgage rates in the United States fell to their lowest level since September 2024 last week, bringing a glimmer of hope for the struggling U.S. housing market at the beginning of the new year in 2026 under the pressure of high interest rates and high inflation in recent years. According to statistics released by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) on Wednesday, the contract rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage in the United States dropped by 7 basis points to 6.25% in the week ending January 2 (including the New Year holiday). The rate for jumbo loans for more expensive homes also fell to 6.32%, the lowest since April 2023. These data are undoubtedly encouraging for the U.S. housing market, which has been constrained by affordability in recent years. According to data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), contract signings have been rising for four consecutive months, indicating that as buyers enter the new year, the momentum in the U.S. real estate sales market continues to strengthen. As shown in the chart above, mortgage rates in the United States have dropped to their lowest level in over a year, and the significant decrease in borrowing costs is expected to signal a glimmer of hope for growth in the U.S. housing market. Despite the decrease in borrowing costs, MBA's purchase index fell by 6.2% after seasonal adjustments last week. However, a decrease in buyer interest around the year-end holidays, coupled with increased market volatility, is a common phenomenon. Meanwhile, the refinancing index unexpectedly rose by 7.4% after adjustments. MBA's survey has been conducted weekly since 1990, compiling detailed responses from mortgage institutions, large commercial banks, and savings institutions. The data covers over 75% of retail residential mortgage applications in the United States.