Goldman Sachs is bullish on the Chinese stock market in 2026: It is expected that the MSCI China Index will rise by 20%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index will reach 5200 points.

Goldman Sachs expects that with the support of artificial intelligence and policy measures, the benchmark index of the Chinese stock market will further rise in 2026, although the rate of increase will be slower than last year. The bank predicts that the MSCI China Index will reach 100 points by the end of 2026, up 20% from the end of 2025, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index is expected to rise by 12% in 2026 to 5200 points. Goldman Sachs strategists said that the returns of the Chinese stock market in 2026 will be mainly driven by improvements in corporate profits. Supported by the development of artificial intelligence, corporate "going global," and anti-insulation policies, profit growth is expected to increase from 4% in 2025, accelerating to around 14% in 2026 to 2027. Meanwhile, the net inflow of southbound funds is expected to reach $200 billion, possibly reaching a new historical high. In terms of industry allocation, Goldman Sachs continues to favor themes related to artificial intelligence, prefers service-oriented consumption in the consumer sector, and focuses on the materials industry in the cyclicals sector, while maintaining an overweight view on the insurance sector. Data shows that in 2025, the MSCI China Index rose by 23%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose by 18%. The Chinese stock market saw significant gains in 2025, which continued into the new year. The Chinese stock market started strong in 2026, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rising by 3.5%, reaching its highest level in four years; the MSCI China Index has risen by 3.4%, outperforming the S&P 500 Index. Goldman Sachs, along with other major institutions, maintains a positive outlook. The upward revision of forecasts reflects confidence that profit expansion, policy measures, and new growth drivers will continue to attract investors.