China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing: The global manufacturing PMI in December 2025 was 49.5%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month.

The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released that the global manufacturing PMI in December 2025 was 49.5%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, maintaining in the range of 49%-50% for 10 consecutive months. In 2025, the global manufacturing PMI average was 49.6%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from 2024. By region, the PMI for Asian manufacturing increased from the previous month to above 51%; European manufacturing PMI decreased from the previous month, remaining below 50%; African manufacturing PMI increased from the previous month to above 50%; and American manufacturing PMI decreased from the previous month to below 48%. In 2025, the average PMI for manufacturing in each region showed some differentiation compared to the trend in 2024. The average PMI for Asian manufacturing was 50.8%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from 2024; African manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from 2024; American manufacturing PMI was 48.8%, the same as in 2024; European manufacturing PMI was 48.8%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from 2024. Looking at the overall index change, the recovery momentum of global manufacturing in December continued to slow down slightly, with the index remaining stable above 49%, maintaining a weak recovery trend, but the recovery intensity has not yet formed effective support and still needs further consolidation and improvement. By region, Asian manufacturing accelerated its expansion, continuing to demonstrate a critical support role in the global economy; African manufacturing saw a slight increase in recovery momentum; European manufacturing maintained a weak recovery trend, with a slightly slower pace of recovery; American manufacturing continued its weak downward trend. Looking at the performance of the full year of 2025, the overall recovery momentum of global manufacturing is slightly better than in 2024, but the average PMI level is still below 50%, indicating that the global economy, under multiple pressures such as tariff policies and geopolitical conflicts, still has a relatively weak recovery trend that needs to be strengthened. In terms of quarterly trends, the first quarter of 2024 saw a relatively stable recovery in global manufacturing, with an average PMI of 49.9%; the second quarter saw a weakening of recovery momentum due to tariff policy impacts, with an average PMI of 49.3%; the third and fourth quarters showed a slight recovery, with average PMIs of 49.6%. By region, Asia still has the strongest recovery momentum in manufacturing, with PMIs above 50%, making it a critical support for the stable recovery of the global economy. African manufacturing has strengthened its recovery momentum, with PMIs rising to above 50%. European manufacturing has shown a slight narrowing of its downward trend, but the recovery trend remains relatively weak, with PMIs below 49%; American manufacturing has remained stable compared to 2024, continuing to show a weak recovery trend, with PMIs still below 49%. Looking forward to 2026, the global economy may still face uncertainty and continue to maintain a weak recovery trend. Major international economic institutions generally predict a slowdown in global economic growth by the end of 2026. The latest Economic Outlook report from the OECD forecasts global economic growth of 3.2% in 2025 and 2.9% in 2026, consistent with the September 2025 forecast. In 2026, international geopolitical conflicts will continue to be the core uncertainty factor disrupting global economic recovery, and the continued spread of trade protectionism will further inhibit international trade activity, increasing uncertainty in the global trade trend. The latest forecasts from the WTO show a significant downward revision of global goods trade growth to 0.5% in 2026, with global service export growth falling to 4.4%. Meanwhile, many countries around the world are still mired in high debt and deficits, which continues to disrupt the stability of global governance. However, it is also important to note that the global inflation level is generally showing a downward trend, and inflationary pressures in 2026 are expected to further ease, providing greater policy flexibility for countries. The investment boom in the field of artificial intelligence is accelerating, providing incremental support for global economic growth and driving global industrial upgrading and economic structural optimization, helping to mitigate downside risks and stabilize the basic support for global economic recovery. In the face of a complex environment, countries around the world should accelerate strategic adjustments, focus on structural reforms domestically, deepen regional cooperation externally, seek a dynamic balance between open cooperation and economic security, promote the standardized application of AI technology and the universalization of green transformation, and build an inclusive and interconnected global economic governance system to overcome growth bottlenecks and achieve sustainable recovery. The weak trend in American manufacturing further declines, with PMI continuously decreasing In December 2025, the PMI for American manufacturing was 47.9%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, below 48%, and has continued to decline for three consecutive months, remaining below 50% for ten months in a row, indicating a further weakening of the weak trend in American manufacturing. Data from major countries shows that in December, the PMI for manufacturing in the United States, Brazil, and Mexico all decreased to below 48%; the PMI for manufacturing in Canada increased slightly from the previous month but remained below 49%; the PMI for manufacturing in Colombia decreased from the previous month but remained above 50%. The ISM report shows that in December 2025, the PMI for manufacturing in the United States was 47.9%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, marking a fifth consecutive month of decline, reaching a new low for 2025 and showing an accelerated downward trend in American manufacturing overall. Sub-indexes show that while the new orders index has increased slightly, it is still below 48%, indicating a weak demand side that has narrowed but remains weak; the production index decreased slightly but remained at 51%, still in the expansion zone, indicating continued expansion in enterprise production at a slightly slower pace; the employment index increased slightly but remained below 45%, showing a slightly improved downward trend but still in a weak state; the purchasing prices index remained unchanged from the previous month, maintaining a high level above 58%, indicating continued cost pressure from tariff policy impacts. In 2025, the average PMI for manufacturing in the United States was 48.9%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from 2024, indicating a slight improvement in the recovery momentum of American manufacturing in 2025 compared to 2024, but the average level is still below 49%, indicating that the recovery momentum of American manufacturing is still relatively weak. Looking ahead to 2026, global forecasts from American banks predict that by the end of 2026, the economic growth rate in the United States will remain at around 2%. It is important to be cautious of the continued accumulation of downside risks, as factors such as the government shutdown, a weakening job market, and tariff policies pushing up commodity prices continue to constrain economic growth in the United States. Consumer confidence in the United States has also declined further recently, with the consumer confidence index dropping from a revised 92.9 in November to 89.1 in December 2025, marking the fifth consecutive month of decline and the lowest level since April of that year, indicating weakening economic prospects. In terms of inflation, the core US PCE price index rose to a high of 2.9% in the third quarter, with inflationary pressures still not fully abated. Coupled with a slowdown in the labor market, the complexity of future Fed decisions has increased, with the possibility that an inflation rebound could delay or reverse the rate cut process, thereby impacting the overall economic recovery pace. African manufacturing shows a slight rebound, with PMI rising to above 50% In December 2025, the PMI for African manufacturing was 50.7%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, once again rising above 50%. Looking at major countries, Kenya and Nigeria saw a slight decrease in their manufacturing PMIs from the previous month but remained at high levels above 53%; Egypt saw a decrease in its manufacturing PMI from the previous month but remained above 50%. Overall, African manufacturing has shown a slight rebound in recovery momentum, with the PMI rising back to the expansion zone, indicating a stronger foundation for economic recovery in Africa. The average PMI for African manufacturing in 2025 was higher than in 2024 and rose above 50%, indicating a strengthening of recovery momentum in African manufacturing and overall stable and positive operation. Looking ahead to 2026, the African economy is still showing signs of a positive recovery. The latest forecasts from the IMF show that Africa is poised for growth, with potential to have the largest number of high-growth economies globally in 2026, with growth rates of at least 6%. With the continued deepening of the African Free Trade Area integration, steady progress in cross-border infrastructure projects, and the dividend of cooperation with the Belt and Road Initiative, regional economic circulation will be further strengthened, injecting momentum into industrial transformation and providing power. However, it is worth noting that debt pressures in African countries remain significant, with high debt servicing costs squeezing development funds. Additionally, the issue of electricity shortages in Africa continues to constrain industrial development. Furthermore, factors such as climate shocks and political instability in certain regions will also pose potential disruptions to the economic recovery in Africa. European manufacturing stabilizes slightly but trends weaker, with a slight decrease in PMI In December 2025, the PMI for European manufacturing was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, marking the sixth consecutive month of maintaining a level above 49%. Looking at major countries, the PMIs for manufacturing in the UK, France, and Greece increased from the previous month, remaining above 50% in the expansion zone; the PMIs for manufacturing in Germany and Italy decreased to below 48% in varying degrees. In terms of overall data changes, European manufacturing still maintains a weak recovery trend, with a slightly slower pace of recovery compared to the previous month. Although the average PMI for European manufacturing in 2025 increased compared to 2024, the average level is still below 49%, indicating that there are still uncertainties both internally and externally in the European economy that may continue to constrain the pace of recovery. On one hand, ongoing geopolitical conflicts and uncertainties stemming from US-EU tariff policies have continued to disrupt the external environment for European economic recovery. On the other hand, Europe faces various challenges internally, with Germany, as the locomotive of the European economy, facing significant uncertainties in economic prospects. The IFO Economic Research Institute in Germany downgraded its forecast for Germany's economic growth in 2026 to 0.8% in December 2025, 0.5 percentage points lower than the autumn forecast. France also continues to grapple with issues such as rising debt, high deficits, and economic stagnation, with the IMF predicting that France's debt-to-GDP ratio will rise from about 116% in 2025 to nearly 130% by 2030. In response to these challenges, the European Central Bank decided to maintain its three key interest rates unchanged in its December 2025 monetary policy meeting, with the euro area consumer price index stable at a reasonable 2.1%, providing solid data support for the stability of interest rate policy. Looking ahead to 2026, the European economy will continue to seek a balance between resilience and pressure. Initiatives such as Germany's trillion-euro investment and defense spending plan, and Bulgaria's accession to the eurozone, are expected to inject growth momentum into the European economy, but potential escalation of US-EU trade disputes, increased financial and debt pressures, energy price fluctuations, and lagging structural reforms are expected to continue to disrupt the economy. If the EU can deepen the integration of the single market, push forward regulatory reforms, and manage trade disagreements effectively, the European economy may be able to consolidate its moderate recovery trend, gradually improve growth sustainability and internal dynamism. Asian manufacturing accelerates expansion, with a slight increase in PMI In December 2025, the PMI for Asian manufacturing was 51.1%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, marking the eighth consecutive month of maintaining a level above 50%. Looking at major countries, China's manufacturing PMI increased from the previous month to above 50%; India's manufacturing PMI decreased to 55%; among ASEAN countries, Thailand's manufacturing PMI is above 55%, while Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Myanmar all have PMIs above 50%; Japan and South Korea's manufacturing PMIs increased from the previous month, with Japan at the critical point of 50% and South Korea slightly above 50%. Overall, Asian manufacturing continues to maintain its expansion trend, with a faster pace of growth, continuing to play a key supporting role in the global economy, injecting steady and stable development momentum into the global economic recovery. In 2025, Asian manufacturing has consistently shown a stable expansion trend, with the annual average PMI slightly decreasing from 2024 but remaining above 50%. Looking ahead to 2026, the Asian economy will continue to unleash high-quality development momentum and growth vitality, remaining the core engine driving global economic recovery. As the benefits of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) continue to be realized, the integration of regional industrial chains and increased trade facilitation are expected to elevate the level of regional economic circulation. Additionally, China remains a stabilizing force and ballast for the smooth operation of the Asian and global economy, with expectations that under China's active fiscal policy and flexible and moderate monetary policy, the economic rebound and positive trend will continue to consolidate. Recent forecasts from the IMF and World Bank have raised their predictions for China's economic growth in 2025. The IMF expects China's economy to grow by 5.0% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026, with an increase of 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points respectively from their October forecasts. In its latest China Economic Update, the World Bank raised its forecast for China's economic growth in 2025 by 0.4 percentage points. This article is compiled from the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, edited by GMTEight: Chen Wenfang.