On the first day of the year, TSMC and Samsung surged to a new high, driving up AI stocks against the market trend.

The first trading day of 2026 saw stocks in the AI chip supply chain surge, becoming the focus of the market amid diverging trends in the US stock market. TSMC's US stocks and Taiwan stocks both hit historic highs, while Samsung Electronics' South Korean stocks rose by 7.2%, setting a new closing record and driving the entire AI sector to rise against the market. On Friday, January 2nd, the Seoul Composite Index rose by 2.3%, surpassing the 4300-point mark for the first time in history, mainly boosted by news of Samsung Electronics' HBM4 business gaining customer recognition. TSMC, on the other hand, benefited from the dual positive factors of the mass production of the 2nm process and the sharp increase in demand for AI chips. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq index posted a slight decline, while the S&P 500 index edged higher, highlighting the independent performance of AI-related stocks. In addition to TSMC and Samsung Electronics, several AI-related stocks recorded gains on Friday. Sandisk, Micron, Western Digital, Intel, and Constellation Energy were among the top gainers. Trillion-dollar tech companies like Nvidia and Broadcom also saw increases. The ongoing optimistic sentiment in the market towards AI infrastructure investment is driving this surge. According to Reuters, Nvidia is adding orders of H200 chips to TSMC. Morgan Stanley pointed out that the tightening of memory supply in 2026, rather than easing, is leading to a 62% increase in DRAM prices and a 75% increase in NAND prices. Analysts generally believe that the AI boom will continue into 2026. Bernstein has listed TSMC as a top pick and expects its revenue to grow by 23% and 20% in 2026 and 2027, respectively. Jim Reid, global head of macro research at Deutsche Bank, stated that continued global growth, optimism about AI potential, and central bank rate cuts will continue to drive financial asset performance. TSMC's mass production of 2nm process, strong demand for orders Recently, TSMC quietly announced on its official website that its 2nm process (N2) technology has started mass production as planned in the fourth quarter of 2025, marking the official entry of the global semiconductor industry into the 2nm era. This technology uses the first-generation nanosheet transistor architecture, which can improve performance by 10% to 15% at the same power consumption, and reduce power consumption by 25% to 30% at the same speed. The N2 process adopts Gate-All-Around nanosheet transistor technology, breaking through the physical limitations faced by the FinFET architecture at the 3nm node. This technology changes the current channel from vertical "fins" to horizontally stacked "nanosheets", with the gate fully enveloping the channel from all sides, significantly reducing leakage and increasing transistor density. Compared to pure logic circuit design, the transistor density of the N2P process is about 20% higher than that of N3E. TSMC CEO C.C. Wei stated at the October earnings conference that the progress of N2 is smooth with good yields, and is expected to achieve faster ramp-up in capacity in 2026 driven by smartphone, high-performance computing, and AI applications. The company plans to expand production simultaneously at the Hsinchu Fab 22 and Kaohsiung Fab, adopting a rare "dual-line combat" strategy to serve both mobile chip and AI server chip product lines. TSMC is also advancing towards more advanced processes. The company plans to start mass production of N2P and A16 processes in the second half of 2026, with A16 using backside power supply technology primarily for AI and high-performance computing processors. Groundwork for the 1.4nm process factory began in November 2025, with risk-based trial production expected to start in 2027 and mass production targeted for 2028. Meanwhile, according to Reuters, Nvidia is adding orders for H200 chips to TSMC. Sources stated that Nvidia has requested TSMC to start production of these additional chips, with work expected to begin in the second quarter of 2026. Samsung's HBM4 gains customer recognition, returning to competitive track Samsung Electronics' stock price soared by 7.2% on Friday, reaching a new closing high, mainly boosted by news that the company's HBM4 business received positive feedback from customers. As previously reported by Wall Street News, Samsung Electronics' Co-CEO Su Yong Hwan revealed in a New Year's speech that the company's HBM4 product has demonstrated "differentiated competitiveness" and has received high praise from customers as "Samsung is back." This statement greatly boosted investor confidence, with the market expecting Samsung to gradually narrow the gap with SK Hynix in the high-bandwidth memory market and potentially re-enter Nvidia's core supply chain with next-generation HBM products in 2026. This stock price surge is also due to the overall resonance of Asian tech stocks and strong industry fundamentals. On Friday, the Hang Seng Tech Index surged by 4.3% influenced by BIREN TECH's listing performance and developments related to DeepSeek, sparking an AI investment frenzy. In terms of macro data, South Korea's semiconductor exports in December surged by 43% year-on-year, confirming the importance of Samsung and SK Hynix in the global AI hardware boom. Analysts optimistic about the future of AI chip supply chain Bernstein has listed TSMC as a top pick, believing that it has advantages in quality, risk, and valuation. The firm points out that without meaningful challengers, TSMC is the actual producer of AI chips, making it one of the main beneficiaries of AI growth. Bernstein expects TSMC's leadership in AI and advanced technology to drive a 23% revenue growth in 2026 and a 20% growth in 2027. The firm also states that a more favorable exchange rate environment and better cost control will reduce the cost burden of overseas production, expecting TSMC's earnings per share to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 20% during the same period, slightly slower than the revenue growth rate. Furthermore, Morgan Stanley emphasizes that the memory market in 2026 is tightening rather than easing. The firm believes that manufacturing constraints colliding with stronger demand will lead to a 62% increase in average DRAM prices and a 75% increase in NAND prices in 2026. Due to the surge in demand for H200 chips, the firm no longer expects the average price of HBM3E to decrease and has significantly raised Micron's profit expectations, increasing the earnings per share expectations for 2026 and 2027 by 56% and 63% respectively. This article is excerpted from "Wall Street News," authored by Dong Jing; edited by He Yucheng.