Bitcoin breaks through the $90,000 barrier! Bitcoin welcomes the New Year with a "red envelope". The market's long and short arguments intensify.

Bitcoin experienced significant volatility in 2025, reaching a high of $93,000 in January, plummeting to $74,500 in April, and then rebounding strongly in October to a record high of $126,200, before giving back most of the gains. There is significant disagreement in the market about the medium to long-term trend of Bitcoin. Several analysts point out that some investors believe Bitcoin has reached a temporary peak and that the bear market risk is increasing. However, there are also views that the downside potential is limited, and there is still the possibility of reaching new highs in 2026. It is worth noting that the traditional "four-year cycle" may no longer be applicable, as those who support the idea of a "weakening cycle" believe that friendly regulations, the establishment of Bitcoin ETFs, and institutional demand are changing the previous price patterns. From a monthly perspective, Bitcoin still maintains an upward structure. Previous corrections have found support near the 20-month moving average (around $88,000), which has become a key defensive line. If the price effectively falls below this moving average and fails to hold above the April low of $74,500, the upward structure will be disrupted, and the price could retrace to the $50,000 range. On the other hand, if there is a rebound from the short-term moving average and the price returns to the psychological level of $100,000, the bulls could once again challenge $126,200; if the breakthrough is successful, the next target could be between $141,200 and $178,600. However, on a weekly basis, the short-term outlook is bearish, as the moving averages may show the first "death cross" since early 2022. Historical experience shows that if the rebound is resisted near the moving averages, the price may repeatedly test $74,500; if the support level is repeatedly tested, the risk of breaking down will increase, possibly evolving into a head and shoulders pattern, dragging the market into a longer consolidation period. The volatility of Bitcoin is also spreading to the capital market. MicroStrategy, led by Saylor - a firm that always emphasized that "volatility is a feature, not a flaw" - is expected to record billions of dollars in unrealized losses in the upcoming fourth-quarter financial report. The reason is that the company adopted market value-based accounting rules this year, and the Bitcoin price fell by about 24% in the fourth quarter, dragging down the value of its $60 billion Bitcoin holdings. This sharp contrast with the $2.8 billion profit in the previous quarter. Market observers point out that as the Treasury company model spreads, fair value measurement will more directly reflect the price fluctuations of encrypted assets on the profit and loss statement, amplifying financial volatility. In 2025, MicroStrategy's common stock fell by 48%, raising concerns among investors about dividend and interest coverage. To alleviate the pressure, the company issued additional common stock in early December to establish a cash reserve and updated its full-year guidance at the beginning of the month, assuming an end-of-year Bitcoin price range of $85,000 to $110,000. Given that Bitcoin closed near $87,600 at the end of the year, the operating results are more likely to fall at the lower end of the guidance. Additionally, Saylor's personal wealth also experienced a significant decline in 2025. Data shows that his net worth dropped by about 40% from the beginning of the year to around $3.8 billion. At the same time, the enterprise value of MicroStrategy has approached the value of its Bitcoin holdings, with the market value to net asset value (mNAV) premium dropping to slightly above 1, indicating that the premium investors pay for the "coin-centric" strategy is diminishing. As we enter the new year, risk assets are showing short-term rebound: MicroStrategy's stock price briefly rose by 5.2% to around $160, and Bitcoin surpassed $90,000. However, analysts caution that in the context of weak technicals, amplified volatility due to accounting rules, and the unresolved question of whether the cycle is no longer effective, Bitcoin and related stocks may continue to experience high volatility. In the short term, $74,500 and $100,000 will be the two key levels in the market game.