Citigroup: Macao's gaming revenue in December last year fell short of expectations, expecting a 10.5% year-on-year increase in combined gaming revenue in January and February.

Citibank released a research report stating that Macau's gaming revenue in December 2025 reached 20.888 billion Macau patacas, averaging around 6.74 billion Macau patacas per day, a 15% year-on-year increase, equivalent to about 91% of the level in December 2019. This data is lower than the bank's forecast by about 5% and also lower than the market's forecast by about 3%. The bank believes that this is mainly due to the unusually low win rate in the VIP rooms, which is likely to be below 3%. The report indicated that Macau's total gaming revenue for the whole year of 2025 reached 247.4 billion Macau patacas, a 9% year-on-year increase, surpassing the Macau government's initial forecast of 240 billion Macau patacas and the revised forecast of 228 billion Macau patacas. Looking ahead to January 2026, Macau will kick off with a series of exciting events, including the "Music Destiny 2" event hosted by Jiangsu TV and iQiyi on January 2, and the Super Junior concert at the Galaxy Entertainment Center from January 9 to 11. The bank's forecast for gaming revenue in January 2026 remains at 21.5 billion Macau patacas, averaging around 6.94 billion Macau patacas per day, implying an 18% year-on-year increase. For the combined gaming revenue forecast for January and February, the impact of the difference in timing of the Chinese New Year compared to last year is estimated to be 42 billion Macau patacas, indicating a 10.5% year-on-year increase.