UBS: Macao casino income in December slightly below expectations, demand expected to remain resilient in 2026.

UBS released a research report stating that official data from Macau shows that the total gaming revenue in December 2025 is approximately 20.9 billion Macau patacas, an increase of 15% year-on-year, with a slight decrease of 1% month-on-month. The average daily gaming revenue is about 674 million Macau patacas, a decrease of 4% month-on-month, lower than the market's expectation of 693 million Macau patacas. The data reflects that the average daily revenue in the last 10 days of December slowed down to 624 million Macau patacas, lower than the 697 million Macau patacas in the first 21 days, possibly due to some gamblers delaying their trips until the long weekend in early 2026, and fluctuations in VIP room win rates. Channel data from the bank shows that the VIP room win rate in December is less than 3%, significantly lower than the 3.5% in the first half of 2025, and the 4.2% in October and November. The total gaming revenue in Macau for the whole year amounted to 247 billion Macau patacas, an increase of 9% year-on-year. Looking ahead to 2026, the bank maintains a constructive view on the Macau gaming industry, expecting demand to remain resilient. The upgrade of tourism products, increased market promotion activities, and a more diversified customer base are expected to support growth, especially in the high-end customer segment. Within the sector, the bank is optimistic about GALAXY ENT (00027) and WYNN MACAU (01128), with target prices of 46.9 Hong Kong dollars and 8.9 Hong Kong dollars respectively, and a "buy" rating.