Stock prices dropped for six consecutive days, ending at 2025! Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) is about to release its Q4 delivery data, and the market is more focused on the progress of autonomous taxi services.

As Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) prepares to disclose fourth-quarter delivery data for 2025, Wall Street's attention is not only focused on "how many cars were sold." For investors, the more important focus is on whether Tesla, Inc.'s autonomous taxi business is making critical progress. The relevant updates are expected to be announced on January 2nd along with the delivery data. The market is mentally prepared for a decline in delivery volume. The consensus forecast from 20 brokerages aggregated by Tesla, Inc. shows that the fourth-quarter delivery volume is expected to be around 422,900 vehicles; FactSet's consensus estimate is around 440,000 vehicles, but a few weeks ago the number was still close to 460,000 vehicles, and more recently expectations have been lowered to closer to 415,000 vehicles. For comparison, Tesla, Inc. delivered approximately 497,000 vehicles in the third quarter of 2025 and 496,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2024. The pressure on delivery volume is not a coincidence. The U.S. federal government canceled the maximum $7,500 electric vehicle purchase tax credit at the end of September, directly raising the cost of buying a car, and also created a "buying frenzy" in the third quarter, pushing delivery volume to a record high for the company (497,100 vehicles). It is reasonable for the volume to fall back in the fourth quarter after the subsidy is withdrawn. In terms of stock price, the short-term trend makes it more difficult for the market to judge the reaction to delivery data. As of Wednesday, Tesla, Inc. stock has fallen for the sixth consecutive trading day; it closed the day at $449.72, down 1%. During the same period, the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.7% and 0.6% respectively. This means that Tesla, Inc. closed with a "sixth consecutive decline," accumulating a retreat of about 8%, but still rose by about 11% for the year. Some investors believe that the current stock price already incorporates a certain level of pessimistic expectations. Gary Black, co-founder of The Future Fund, stated that as long as delivery volume is around 415,000 vehicles, the stock price may remain stable; what the market is really interested in is whether the Austin autonomous taxi can break free from human safety monitoring by the end of the year and achieve fully automated operation. In June of this year, Tesla, Inc. launched an autonomous taxi service in Austin, Texas, equipped with front safety monitors. If, as CEO Elon Musk recently hinted, the monitors are removed first, it will be seen as an important milestone for the commercialization of autonomous driving; subsequently, expanding to more cities will become the next key milestone. Currently, Tesla, Inc. is also testing autonomous taxis in San Francisco, but still with front safety monitors. Autonomous taxis are seen as the core of Tesla, Inc.'s valuation. Despite a decline in car sales, Tesla, Inc.'s stock price has risen by about 13% this year. The company expects car sales in 2025 to be less than 1.7 million vehicles, declining for the second consecutive year, but its market value of around $1.6 trillion and a projected price-to-earnings ratio of around 220 for 2026 are largely based on market expectations for its artificial intelligence applications (especially autonomous driving taxis).