Guosheng's 2026 energy storage strategy: Global energy storage boom is imminent, AI-assisted storage trend is clear.

Guosheng released a research report, stating that looking ahead to the energy storage industry in 2026, it is expected that the domestic large-scale storage capacity will increase by +111% year-on-year to 283.63GWh; a conservative estimate predicts an average annual increase of 200GWh+ in domestic large-scale storage capacity. In the overseas market, the trend of AI with storage is clear, with an expected increase in US energy storage demand of 10/27/39GWh driven by AIDC with storage from 2026 to 2028. The report suggests focusing on two main lines of development: 1) Domestic large-scale storage: China is currently benefiting from policy incentives, with a clear trend towards increased independent energy storage capacity, and attention should be paid to the performance elasticity of various companies under price transmission; 2) Overseas energy storage: Traditional energy storage demand remains high, and incremental space brought by AI with storage, Australia, and Europe. The main points of Guosheng are as follows: Domestic large-scale storage: Optimistic about the long-term growth space of independent energy storage driven by the combination of consumption pressure and economic factors. Price transmission: How to view the impact of the price increase of lithium carbonate and batteries on downstream installation demand? In December 2025, the price of W2 lithium carbonate increased to 92,600 yuan/ton, and in November, the bid prices for lithium battery energy storage EPC projects in China increased by 13.4% month-on-month, indicating smooth price transmission. According to Guosheng's calculation, the transmission range of battery core price increase is 0.05-0.1 yuan/wh, and a 1 cent increase in battery core cost corresponds to approximately 0.7% decrease in the internal rate of return (IRR). Subsidy costs: How to evaluate the sustainability of independent energy storage capacity electricity price compensation in various provinces? The electricity price compensation for independent energy storage capacity in most provinces is mainly borne by industrial and commercial users. With industrial and commercial electricity prices falling by 0.0003-0.0571 yuan, the compensation fees for independent energy storage capacity push up the system operation costs of industrial and commercial electricity prices by approximately 0.0027 yuan/kWh (Xinjiang). Overall, the comprehensive price of industrial and commercial electricity is still trending downwards. It is judged that the compensation for independent energy storage capacity electricity prices in various provinces is sustainable. Space outlook: How to calculate and outlook the short-term and long-term space in 2026? Short-term: It is expected that the domestic large-scale storage capacity will increase by +111% year-on-year to 283.63GWh in 2026; Long-term: A conservative estimate predicts an average annual increase of 200GWh+ in domestic large-scale storage capacity. AI with storage: Clear industry trend overseas suggests that AIDC with storage will drive a 10/27/39GWh increase in US energy storage demand from 2026 to 2028. NVIDIA's white paper first proposed the concept of "two-layer energy storage", where large-scale AI model training may cause drastic fluctuations in AIDC electricity consumption load, and storage allocation is a reasonable solution for AI computing centers. In addition, the short construction cycle of energy storage may replace diesel generators, gas turbines, etc., as long-term backup power for data centers. According to BCG consulting, the US and global data center electricity demand is expected to reach 81GW/125GW by 2028, and the calculation shows that AIDC with storage will drive a 10/27/39GWh increase in US energy storage demand from 2026 to 2028, accounting for 15%/38%/40% of the total US energy storage demand. The competition landscape among North American energy storage integrators is relatively concentrated, with a CR5 of around 73% in 2024. According to WoodMackenzie, Tesla, Sungrow Power Supply, and Powin rank among the top three market share holders. Overseas household storage and industrial/commercial storage: Optimistic about the growth of the Australian and Hungarian household storage markets in 2026, and long-term optimistic about the demand for overseas industrial/commercial storage. Overseas household storage: In December 2025, the Australian household storage market increased subsidies to 7.2 billion Australian dollars, and the Hungarian government also launched a 280 million US dollars household storage subsidy budget plan, anticipating a substantial increase in household storage demand. Overseas industrial/commercial storage: The cost of electricity for small and medium-sized businesses in Europe is the highest, electricity prices in Southeast Asia are relatively higher than in China, and high electricity prices in Africa are driving demand for enterprise-end industrial/commercial storage for emergency backup power and cost reduction purposes. Calculations show that the long-term space for industrial/commercial storage in Europe, Southeast Asia, and Africa is 146GWh. Targets to focus on: Large-scale storage: Focus on Sungrow Power Supply (300274.SZ), Beijing HyperStrong Technology (688411.SH), CSI Solar Co., Ltd. (688472.SH), Jiangsu Tongrun Equipment Technology (002150.SZ), Sineng Electric (300827.SZ), etc.; Household storage: Focus on Ningbo Deye Technology (605117.SH), SolaX Power Network Technology (688717.SH), Ginlong Technologies (300763.SZ), Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co., Ltd. (688390.SH), Shenzhen Kstar Science & Technology (002518.SZ), Pylon Technologies (688063.SH), etc. Risk warning: Data center demand falls short of expectations, increasing industry competition risks, uncertainty in policy subsidies, and risks related to calculation assumptions.