Sinolink: In 2026, China's commercial aerospace industry will usher in a key transitional period towards industrialization explosion.

Sinolink released a research report stating that the global aerospace industry is undergoing a structural change similar to the Age of Discovery, with the rise of commercial aerospace companies such as SpaceX. China's commercial aerospace industry is at a key transition point from policy incubation to industrial expansion. 2026 will be the alpha year for China's commercial aerospace industry, and industry logic will shift from simple thematic mapping to fundamental investment based on supply chain performance realization. The report emphasizes focusing on A-share listed companies deeply integrated with commercial rocket/satellite supply chains, as these companies will benefit first from the industry's shift from prototype development to mass production. The main points of Sinolink are as follows: Deep coupling based on four dimensions Policy - urgency of high-frequency networking: With the completion of the two giant constellations, Qianfan Constellation (G60) and China Star Network (GW), in 2024-2025, and their initial technical verification and first launches, 2026 is expected to enter a period of high-frequency intensive networking. According to the spectrum occupancy rules of the ITU (International Telecommunication Union) and the requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission for new infrastructure, 2026-2027 is a mandatory window for achieving thousand-star level deployment, which will directly raise the demand for upstream manufacturing capacity. Technology - breakthrough of capacity bottleneck: The long-term capacity deficit that has hindered the deployment of Chinese constellations is expected to be structurally alleviated in 2026-2027. Reusable rockets such as Blue Arrow Aerospace's Zhuque III are expected to achieve reuse during this period, significantly reducing orbital launch costs and unlocking launch demand from the supply side. Capital - reconstruction of valuation system: The market's valuation system for commercial aerospace will shift from the relatively grand narrative of TAM (Total Addressable Market) discounting to specific PS and order visibility analysis. With satellite factory capacity ramping up and rocket launch frequency increasing, the cash flow of core supporting enterprises in the commercial aerospace industry will significantly improve. External catalyst - SpaceX mapping effect: SpaceX's rapid iteration of Falcon 9, Starship, and Starlink not only validates the business model, but also creates urgent competitive pressure, driving domestic policy and capital towards core companies in the race. Investment recommendations On the eve of 2026, adopt a dumbbell configuration strategy: on the one hand, allocate to system integrators with state-owned background and core frequency orbit resources (stable beta returns); on the other hand, enter the private supporting leading companies in the core components and supporting sectors of commercial rockets and satellites (such as phased array T/R components, laser communication, 3D printing, testing, and core networks) (highly flexible alpha returns). Focus on A-share listed companies deeply integrated with commercial rocket/satellite supply chains, as these companies will benefit first from the industry's shift from prototype development to mass production. Risk reminders Risk of launch failure; geopolitical and supply chain sanctions; Kepler effect; market competition and integration risks.