A-shares closing review | 2025 concludes! the Shanghai Composite Index closes with 11 consecutive gains, the ChiNext board rises by nearly 50% for the year.

In 2025, the official end! The Shanghai Composite Index stubbornly closed with 11 consecutive gains, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fluctuated and adjusted. Looking back at the whole year, major broad-based stock indexes have been rising steadily since hitting bottom in early April. The Shanghai Composite Index started from a low of 3040 points and once broke through the 4000-point mark, with a nearly 20% annual increase, achieving its best annual performance in nearly 6 years. The ChiNext Index saw an even higher increase of around 50% for the year. In 2025, A-shares are destined to be recorded in the history of the development of China's capital market: the total market value breaks through the trillion-dollar mark for the first time, achieving a historic volume leap; the technology sector returns strongly to reshape the market mainline, becoming the core engine of the market; margin trading balances climb to 2.55 trillion yuan; incremental funds enter actively; the total annual turnover surpasses 40 trillion yuan, reaching new levels of liquidity. From the perspective of Shenwan industry, non-ferrous metals and communication sectors have shown a leading increase throughout the year, becoming the most dazzling duet of the year. Behind the strong performance of the non-ferrous metal sector is a profound logical restructuring: shifting from traditional cyclical attributes to a combination of monetary and strategic resource attributes. The communication sector, on the other hand, is driven by the dual forces of the digital economy foundation and the AI technology wave. Looking at individual stocks, Swancor Advanced Materials Co., Ltd. led the pack with a cumulative increase of more than 18 times, becoming the hottest stock of the year, while Ningbo TIP Rubber Technology followed closely with a more than 16-fold increase. Looking ahead to 2026, "riding the trend" and "scaling new heights" have become the consensus among institutions, with the market trend expected to transition from valuation-driven to earnings-supported. Debon Securities expects technology growth to remain the main theme, with areas like artificial intelligence and computing power likely to continue to lead the market; Open Source Securities, on the other hand, predicts a more balanced style next year, with a preference for technology, while dividend styles in 2026 are expected to outperform those in 2025. Fund Flow Today, the main funds focus on grabbing stocks in the automotive parts, advertising and marketing, general equipment and other sectors, with top net inflow stocks including Sensteed Hi-tech Group, China Satellite Communications, Huizhou Speed Wireless Technology, among others. Important News Review 1. The National Development and Reform Commission: in 2026, early bids for "double-stack" projects will be allocated around 220 billion yuan to support 281 projects including urban underground pipe networks On December 31, the National Development and Reform Commission held a press conference. At the meeting, Li Chao, deputy director of the Policy Research Office of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that in terms of "double-stack" construction, about 220 billion yuan has been allocated to support 281 projects in areas such as urban underground pipe networks, high-standard farmland, the Going North Project, effectively reducing the logistics costs of the whole society, further highlighting the strategic, forward-looking and overall nature of the "double-stack" construction. 2. Spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce responds to questions from reporters on the interview with Dutch Minister of Economics Kaaremans The spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce stated that China has repeatedly emphasized that the Dutch intervention in the internal affairs of ASML Semiconductor has caused a global semiconductor supply chain crisis, and the Dutch side must bear full responsibility for this. It is confusing that, in the face of global industry anxiety and unrest, the Dutch side remains indifferent and insists on its own way. 3. China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 50.1% in December, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month The National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for December today (31st). The data shows that in December, China's manufacturing market demand has been released to some extent, with good expansion in enterprise production and the market price running well. China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for December was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, entering the expansion range, indicating a positive recovery in manufacturing. Market Analysis for the Future 1. Debon Securities: A-shares in 2026 are expected to continue the "slow bull" trend, with technology growth expected to remain the main theme Cheng Qiang, chief economist of Debon Securities, believes that A-shares are expected to continue the "slow bull" trend in 2026, with the index stable and well-supported. Technology growth is expected to remain the main theme, with areas like artificial intelligence, computing power and other hard technology tracks expected to continue to lead the market; at the same time, high-dividend red-chip assets have important underlying value and can provide a stable cash flow in an environment of weak economic recovery and declining interest rates, with current valuations at relatively low levels. 2. Open Source Securities: Dividend styles in 2026 are expected to outperform 2025 Wei Jixing, Chief Analyst of Open Source Securities, believes that in 2026, it is more likely to be a "low-slope slow bull" rather than a "sharp peak short bull". Structurally, the market may transition from a "valuation bull" to an "institutional bull", with a more balanced style, a preference for technology, and dividend styles expected to outperform those in 2025 in 2026. 3. Huafu Securities: China's capital market "transformation bull" continues to deepen Zhu Bin, chief analyst at Huafu Securities Research Institute, said that since February 2024, A-shares have entered a new bull market cycle, with technology and transformation as the main themes of this round. After entering 2026, China's capital market will continue to deepen the "transformation bull" trend, and external uncertainties are expected to increase, with the market likely to move forward in a wave-like manner. It is recommended to focus on the track, with new quality productivity as the pioneer of economic transformation, sectors focused on during the "Fourteenth Five-Year Plan" still worth continuous attention; the consumer sector is expected to achieve a phased counterattack in 2026 and is also worth watching. This article is reprinted from "Tencent Stock Selection", GMTEight Editor: Liu Jiayin.