Jefferies: Roivant (ROIV.US) to welcome three major catalysts in 2026, with a target price potentially reaching $24.

Jefferies released an in-depth research report focusing on the investment prospects of the biotechnology company Roivant Sciences (ROIV.US), revealing its future three core catalysts and valuation logic through rigorous financial models and industry analysis. As a medical holding company, Roivant has 10 subsidiaries dedicated to high-potential areas such as immunology and computational drug discovery, aiming to maximize investment returns through new drug development. The report points out that 2026 will be a key turning point for the company, with three catalysts potentially driving a significant increase in stock price. The first catalyst involves patent litigation with Moderna (MRNA.US) and Pfizer Inc. (PFE.US) over LNP technology. According to the progress of the litigation, the trial will commence on March 9, 2026. Conservative estimates show that if Roivant receives a 5% royalty fee based on total CV19 vaccine revenue of $600-130 billion, the company could receive $20-45 billion in damages; for the Moderna case alone, based on 5% of revenue of $300-400 billion, the company could receive $10-15 billion. While the stock price has already partially reflected the litigation upside, reaching a settlement could still potentially boost the stock price further through additional compensation and the demonstration effect of the Pfizer Inc. case. The second catalyst comes from Pulmovant's Phase II clinical trial data for PH-ILD. The key to the trial is to validate the efficacy of PAH treatment strategies in PH-ILD. Data shows that if the Phase II data confirms a PVR reduction of over 20%, it will be considered a positive signal. If successful, the asset will move to Phase III clinical trials, with an expected start in the first half of 2027, results announced in 2030, application submitted in 2031, and approval in 2032, demonstrating significant unrealized value potential not factored into the stock price. The third catalyst is Priovant's brepo drug Phase III NIU trial data, with the timeline advanced to the second half of 2026. There are approximately 70,000 to 100,000 non-infectious uveitis (NIU) patients in the US, with 30,000 to 35,000 using off-label therapies such as Humira. Assuming brepo as a post-Humira treatment option, covering 20,000 eligible patients, with Roivant capturing 30-50% market share, i.e. 5,000 to 10,000 patients using the drug, calculated at a net price of $300,000, peak sales could reach $1.5-3 billion. On the valuation front, Jefferies uses the Sum of the Parts (SOTP) method for calculation: expected compensation for LNP litigation $2.5-3 billion, with Roivant receiving $1.5-2 billion; IMVT subsidiary market value $5.4 billion, adjusted to $5.1 billion after deducting $0.25 billion cash, with 60% ownership corresponding to $3 billion valuation; brepo drug calculated at peak sales of $1.75 billion, 5 times P/E ratio and 95% success rate, with 75% ownership corresponding to a $6.25 billion valuation; combined with current $4.4 billion cash and expected $3.7 billion in NTM cash, the overall valuation framework becomes clear. In terms of risk factors, competition pressure, regulatory approval uncertainty, and commercialization challenges need to be closely monitored. Based on this, Jefferies gives a "buy" rating to Roivant, with a target price of $24, representing a 10.95% upside from the latest closing price of $21.63. The current market value is $15.4 billion, with a 64.2% float, average daily trading volume of $186 million, and a 52-week price range of $8.73-23.47.